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Gonna be the dirtiest race ever
You should take a leaf out of Wyclef's book.
after Trumpy's speech last night I think the gloves will be off pretty much straight away
What does the world look like when he wins? I can't even imagine it.
Well I've seen Idiocracy and that's as close as I can get. (sorry for hackneyed analogy)
"we're going to get that water flowing again for ya"
Not that far from using Gatorade (for the electrolytes.)
all that backpedalling they did after the referendum didn't seem to really upset people that much. No doubt Trump will just fail to do much at all and blame it on 'THEM' stopping him.
Third Eye Blind trolling the lot of them might be my personal highlight.
It's harder to win a general election these days in the US if you totally alienate non-Caucasian voters. But someone will take his shtick and run with it more effectively in 2020/2024. Or as usual only the crazies will vote in midterms and so Congress will be run by crazy Republicans anyway
brexit who knows?
At least Boris isn't Prime Minister? No, no. Everything is still incredibly shit. Possibly actually worse.
Anyone got a really good bunker we can all chill out in? a DiStopia if you will
Learning various skills.
After that speech yesterday Trump is definitely not going to win. Basically mugged of a large proportion of libertarian republicans.
Oh and thats obviously on top of his continual mugging off of women, minorities and generally decent people.
His speech writers made a play for Sanders supporters, women, lgbtq, students, pretty much every group he's disparaged. He also spoke at length about ISIS/BENGAAAZEE/security, gun rights, infrastructure, health care - sweet, sweet music to the GOP's ears.
The right wing reaction was gushing praise immediately afterwards, the shameless 'reaching out' will be forgotten. What's the alternative? Hillary? She's after their goddamn guns!
The GOP have already decided the agenda they will pursue whilst in office. As you'd imagine the Republican platform is as right wing as possible, Trump's speech has literally nothing to do with what will happen if he gets in. If someone watched that speech in isolation, it's possible their opinion could change one way or the other, but realistically, ten million people watched, the rest didn't. In short, I don't think it damaged him any more than anything else he's said or done.
might be the worst person ever
Sure, it was incoherent nonsense, but today wwe basically just watched the 21st century Mussolini pitch to be "leader of the free world"
Like 0% chance of winning, regardless of what Nate Silver or pollsters or whoever says.
People keep saying 'ooh but everyone said that about the nomination!', but that's for registered Republicans, and Republicans are, by and large, stupid. The US as a whole is not electing Donald Trump president.
Trump's biggest problem is not with hispanics or Muslims or black people or women. His problem is that he is a fucking moron, and not in the way that GWB was - i.e. a moron compared with a competent politician. Trump is a moron like people who call in to talk radio shows are morons. It's extremely obvious to anyone barely awake that he doesn't know what he's talking about, has no policies, no experience, and is flat out thick. He is staggeringly shit. He has to win independents and Bernie Dems and all the Reps who hate him (which is a lot), and he isn't going to. He might win one swing state, Florida, because everybody in Florida is insane already.
I have next to no faith in America or Americans, or much of anything at this point, but Donald Trump is not becoming President. I know no one likes Hillary, I don't like Hillary, but she's going to win easily and America will thank their lucky stars for the ensuing eight years of centre-right oligarchy.
I agree that it's likely Trump will thankfully fall short (although 538 has it as only 60/40 in HRC's favour). However, it's worth noting that this really isn't a normal election. Nate Silver's crown has slipped, he consistently predicted that Trump's (name recognition alone) bubble would burst. His team have had to rewrite their algorithms to accommodate him. HRC name's her running mate today.
All the primary polls had him leading. If people had just followed those rather than insisting the bubble would burst at some point, they'd have got it right.
The polls certainly called it, he does use a model as well which incorporates other factors.
Everything crossed those polls are right!
a) almost nobody of any political orientation really thought we were going to be where we are now with trump.
b) literally everything he says is misinterpreted by the media. if he says there's an 80% chance of x and x doesn't happen, everyone goes 'HAHA YOUR PREDICTION WAS WRONG' and obvs that's not how it works.
Clinton's poll numbers are much further ahead of Trump than Obama's were vs Romney this exact time four years ago. And Obama won that election easily. And Clinton has just come off a ton of bad press from her FBI investigation.
Going after the independent and moderate Republican voters who are turned off by Trump, rather than the Bernie supporters.
Kaine has supported free trade, deregulating local banks, restrictions on certain types of abortion, parental consent laws and 'informed consent' practices. But he is a 'nice guy' who speaks Spanish and has Midwestern appeal.
Trump is a dangerous demagogue and clinton is just shit. America deserves no better than this shower.
Christ, Newt actually showed a flicker of humanity last week. People claimed (with tongues in cheeks) that he was 'woke'. What a moron.
that country desperately needs a revolution. It'd never do it though. It'll just drag us all into the abyss.
He's a Bernie Delegate for Illinois. My wife received enough votes to go, but missed out due to some rules I don't really understand.
my mind is doomed!
Time to head to the shelters...
Hillary is polling better against Trump that Obama was against Romney at the same point in proceedings, and Trump is coming off a convention bounce. Plus, you can't underestimate Trump's ability to blow himself up at some point. I don't think the debates will be the disaster for him some people think they will (he doesn't have to outsmart Hillary, he just has to lie more and pander to his base), but he could do something any day that fucks his credibility.
McCain, Dukakis and even Mondale all held leads in the summer at some point, so nothing is set in stone as you say.
Not sure Trump will fuck his credibility, his base don't care about how awful he is, it's more a case of if those who hate him (i.e. anyone not a white male) turn out to vote for Hillary.
if he'd been able to show where the beef was
if he hasn't fucked his credibility by now he never will in some people's eyes. honestly think this is the last thing that's going to trip him up
Obviously, in many of his fans' eyes, the more racist the better. But if he says something to really dishonour the military, or piss of right wing Christians, or something similarly targeted against those voters that should be coming out in droves for him, it could set him back.
And if you believe Hillary Clinton is going to beat Trump with facts and smarts and logic, then you obviously missed the past year of 56 primaries and caucuses where 16 Republican candidates tried that and every kitchen sink they could throw at Trump and nothing could stop his juggernaut
Must have missed the 16 Republican candidates using facts and smarts and logic somehow
She can go into a debate and dance intelligent circles round him, and all it would do is cement beliefs that's she's a calculated, insidery, political lifetime elite, and big up Trump as some straight talking man of the people.
She just has to focus on making sure she wins every vote it's possible for her to get.
I was pointing out one of the (several) dubious passages in Moore's piece.
needs to take him seriously, highlight every sexist and racist thing he has said, and how that makes him inappropriate to be commander in chief.
the republicans couldn't do that because his positions were just more extreme positions of his ones.
People are losing their shit at the moment because Trump has a post-convention bounce. I hope Hillary and her team aren't that defeatist.
if only we could all listen to an american politics podcast, but from a british perspective. don't think such a thing exists.
but fucking hell, Trump's hair.
going to be tight. 55/45 chances towards Hilary at the moment.
Hilary basically has the college educated vote, minority vote and female vote in. Its the under-educated white racists in the rust belt states who may win it for Trump. She needs to work out how to get that vote down for Trump and keep hers everywhere else up.
He is going to protect them from 'the Muslims'.
think him referring to them as 'the gays' doesnt help
Surely if literally anyone else even joked about that they'd be visited by an angry SWAT team in the night?
what is happening?
as someone else said "the challenge is remaining shocked"
As mentioned, Hillary Clinton's challenge is getting those who can't stand Trump to vote for her.
Whoever loses this election, their party is going to have a mass outbreak of 'if we'd picked anyone else, we'd have won!'
he's such a great speaker, we're gonna miss him
you can certainly argue that he didn't do enough, didn't fulfill his promises, became too much part of the establishment he railed against from 04-08.
but in terms of 'seeming presidential', he's probably the GOAT head of state at least of my lifetime. the way he talks, the actual timbre of his voice, his obvious thoughtfulness/intelligence, wit, able to make pretty good jokes on talk shows and that. handsome, great smile. plus he can make a 3 pointer, and loves the wire.
to the extent that your head of state projects an image of your country to the rest of the world, i don't think america really realises how good they've had it with obama. whichever of these two gets in will be an enormous downgrade.
I'm twenty minutes in and Hillary just isn't that great at speaking.
enough for the highlight reel.
in particular the open about Trump not being qualified because he can be baited by a tweet.
I don't think it was bad at all, an extremely well written speech
it had some good build up moments but still felt overwritten, trying to link things unnaturally or Clintons delivery not meeting the emotions in the words. But that doesn't that much.
are trump voters just racist pricks? Seriously, the mans a total cnut with no policies, and the morons in america are about to do a brexit.
Makes me wish the decline in WWC area accelerates so more of them die off, and they stop ruining the world for the rest of us
The 'Keepin it 1600' pod is superb.
They're obviously very biased towards the Dems but in this particular election that's not really a problem.
Just started listening to NPR Politics this week, really good, much more chatty and fun than I expected it to be.
Brexit only happened because all the votes for it actually counted
"I would like to think [Ivanka] would find another career or find another company if that was the case"
His daughter, who has worked only for him -
i go and look at the election forecast graph in the days following the DNC/Trump vs. the Khans, and burst out laughing. feeling pretty good about my 'trump has zero chance' prediction
direct to graph:
By pretty much suggesting Hilary should be shot
He intentionally found just the right level of ambiguity for people to interpret it the way they want to interpret it. He can insist it was just a call for people who support the second amendment to vote for him in order to ensure the Hilary can't pick the next Supreme Court judge. He can portray people who condemn the comments as a threat as simply being part of the 'establishment' who will do anything, including twisting what he says, in order to stop him winning.
should be arrested. its not ok to suggest shooting your opponent
And I thought by now I'd stop being surprised with the shite he's been spewing from his
against the law
Threatening to kill, kidnap, or inflict bodily harm on a presidential candidate is a felony, punishable with up to five years in prison.
Conservative filmmaker Joel Gilbert, who produced the video, said
“You see Trump traveling the country on his airplane. He’s looking to solve people’s problems…It’s giving power back to the people. Who is more American than Superman?”
Funded by a SuperPAC created by this guy