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exit polls. great technology
want to die
there's nowt in the opinion polls to support this, but they could well be wrong.
that fact the incumbent government has lost seats based on the exit poll and no-one challenging him. Good work BBC.
could lib dems do the right thing and join labour instead
The DUP and UKIP would have 11 between them I think
they've said they'll go with the largest party
Then they'll dump them
but would absolutely not hold my breath
YouGov exit poll - CON 284 MPs, LAB 263, LIBS 31, SNP 48, UKIP 2, PLAID 3, GREEN 1
still not doing cartwheels at that
from the first opinion poll is absolutely mental.
Fingers crossed yougov are more accurate.
forgot about her. She seemed very cool when she won last time.
"Mary Delfino: I'd just like to say to the Conservatives if they HAVE won the election "Don't be too smug! I, my family, and many like me, voted for you MERELY to keep Labour and the SNP out - not to vote you back in! The party I would have liked to have voted for would have been UKIP, but I didn't want to waste my vote.""
why the two exit polls are so wildly different?
because it's basically guesswork?
It's a "re-contact survey", whatever that is.
1) The exit poll is based on certain constituencies only - pick those badly or make the wrong assumptions about how they apply nationwide and you'll get screwy results.
2) One of the two polls has a screwy sample. Given 100 polls of that size, probably 3 or 4 would give an unusual result because they've just been unlucky with their sample.
3) YouGov may still be applying filters based on their polling assumptions. They polled 6000 odd people who they've polled previously during the campaign and found no swing, which suggests that either *all* the pollsters have been making bad assumptions or actually YouGov are going to be closer.
the government is going to be even worse than it is.
that's something I suppose
How many of you lot remember 1992?
Because it felt a bit like this.
You lucky bugger. I still remember being upset about 1983.
and also very inaccurate.
Hope that helps.
massively wrong. Fingers crossed, eh?
Nick Robinson hitting on the main spectre thrown up by that exit poll: the prospect of a UK totally riven into geographical factions.
Park the bus, Ed, park the bus!
have lost their deposit in Houghton & Sunderland S.
Thanks everyone, happy election.
a cross between Michael White of the Guardian and Enoch Powell.
looks like harry hill
Be wary at the moment.
Now we've had both Harman and Campbell on and two of the biggest Labour tubthumpers have singularly failed to project an image that they think that poll is anything other than the truth.
Sleeping bag and writing the results down to keep warm
for the LD's.
Shy UKIPers have left the booths and said they voted Tory.
and concede 316 to the opposition.
was months ago I'm sure and he had a bad throat then. Is he seriously ill? If so,feel bad for him, if not, can he just fuck off until it's better ffs
"Electoral Calculus, who pretty much got 2010 right, have this: Con 280, Lab 274, Lib Dems 21, SNP, 52, UKIP 1, GRN 1 "
Can we go with that ?
there's only ever a single exit poll in the UK these days as they're so expensive to do properly.
Loads of missed links and shit.
They're next on Dave's little list.
must be using windows 8.1
that I can find out the swing in a returned seat, from the BBC website, a minute before they get around to putting it on the telly.
as their count is announced, so it'd be a bit like the first night of Big Brother.
Just a couple of them in there now chatting awkwardly.
sitting on her own on the government benches, pretending to be Prime Minister and trying out the Mace.
must be absolutely terrified.
He's probably in Mexico by now
If you were running for Mayor, he'd vote for you.
cameron bringing on messi
when everyone was like NAH that exit poll is well wrong cos there's no way Lib Dems have done that badly.
And then it turned out to be pretty much bang on.
Everyone fuck off and die
Still white dominated though.
I've seen quite a lot of general elections. I have never before seen one where so many opposition politicians seem to have thrown in the towel this early. It is truly amazing. The private polling must be horrendous.
do i a)grab a single malt before bed or b)head straight to sleep?
or you stay for the duration
I'm the needy one in this relationship.
for what is pretty much two lines
So, you voted LibDem in 2010, but then lost all respect for them when they rolled over to the Tories, so... you just cut out the middleman and vote Tory this time?
splitting and moving in possibly equal parts to the two major parties. In that case the Lib Dems lose Lib Dem / Conservative marginals.
Shame on you BBC.
but the bbc are playing to the crowd that cameron should stay in government even if there is a possible anti-tory majority. intersting.
even I think that line of argument is straw-clutching. If the tories get more than 305 odd seats they'll go for it, and as Peter Kellner says they'll get a Queen's Speech through the commons.
if they end up either gaining on or equaling their 2010 score - people will be screaming murder if that happens and they get blocked.
do end up with something ridiculous like 316 seats it's difficult to imagine them not remaining up in government no matter what it takes to do so.
for a sexy submarine.
Looking like a night to enjoy such small pleasures...
Boris looks really pissed off.
I was on Victoria St in London a couple of times. I saw Nick Robinson waiting under an umbrella and didn't punch him. I also saw Robert Peston who was sitting on a bench, head in hands, just staring into the distance. At the time I assumed he was just being Robert Peston, thinking about economics and shit. Of course he was probably thinking about his dying wife. At the time I remember thinking I'd like to at least say hello. Wish I had.
it's gonna be a long night
I've still got two bottles of wine and a cupboard of horrible spirits in reserve. I'm going to need them.
why don't we have some simple electronic system. it's fucking mental.
Seems totally at odds with the TECHNOLOGICAL SOCIETY we live in
I bank, work and basically live via technology/cloud/internet. facetime and all that shit...
but then when it comes to important decisions about the government of our country, we have an antiquated system where queues can form that are so long that people have the door closed on them, and people register to vote in time, but it isn't processed and they can't vote. the system is against people who work and against people who are just generally disorganised. that's just completely ridiculous.
is Jeremy Vine using for all this intensive prediction? Is it just the exit poll?
They've taken the trends they see from the exit poll and applied them to individual seats - it's a best guess.
Doesn't mean they're wrong of course, but it's weirdly hypnotic to watch the media eat itself like this.
Yeah I don't understand the sample size divided by number of seats is nowhere near enough to make predictions on the local level
so around 200 people in each - which gives around a 4-5% margin of error on individual seats. They use those results to project nationally using voodoo and statistics to get something that should be fairly close.
Ah yeah I guess the strongholds are fairly predictable
Look at St Ives waiting until 1pm. They clearly went to bed at 10pm and won't even bother counting until after brunch.
every elector there has seven wives, and they all insist on letting their seven cats mark the ballot paper. Takes ages.
about the BBC coverage is that when they go to a count the caption shows where they actually are, not the constituency. So we've just had someone labelled as in Bedworth talking about Nuneaton constituency and someone labelled as Canvey Island, from ???. That's just stupid planning.
00:37 Peter Mandelson concedes Labour defeat.
who couldn't even manage to be on the stage when his result was announced.
*Everyone else laughs nervously*
that's pretty hardcore.
It's just white noise now.
Went completely missing when on ITV.
is war between south of England and everybody else. Seems a bit of an error to leave all those nuclear subs up north.
that's exactly where the south want them strategically positioned
farage set to lose south thanet
colabing with the proper results?
they can't change the exit poll as it's fixed (as far as I know).
they can do updated projections based on whatever they want though
The exit poll itself is what people actually said, what they've presented is their prediction/projection of what that means in terms of seats. I don't think they've actually given the % share have they?
nice one son
nice one tooting
let's have another one
of Sadiq Khan starting to distance himself from the current Labour leadership.
I'm starting to wonder what the election prediction would be if 100% of Lib Dem voters swtiched to Conservative/Ukip.
seems to self assured about himself and Blairite for my liking. Got a feeling Tessa Jowell would be a better candidate for Labour, although that could be me projecting my own opinions onto a candidate's chance of beating whoever the Tories put up..
is exactly the right person to sum up tonight's results.
More's the pity.
No way was Labour expecting to take Battersea, and that vote clearly shows a swing from Lib Dem to Conservative, not Labour to Conservative.
These votes are wrong at a time when negotiations are still going on.
But parents and the public have been let down by both sides because the government has acted in a reckless and provocative manner.
After today's disruption I urge both sides to put aside the rhetoric and stop it happening again.
What on earth don't you like about him?
Just seems to be on autopilot
No emotion or passion unless a newspaper has a go at his dad
I can understand that. On the plus side you're not going to have to worry about liking him or not for much longer.
Never once seen it replicated when he's doing his day job. As the Labour leader he should be equally angered and stuff by Tory policies but it just seemed like they only affect him on a professional, superficial level cos they're barely different anyway fuck off
if he was a guide at an arboretum or something. But as a potential leader of the country? Nah mate.
he'd definitely be one of those guides who tries too hard to be your mate and you bump into him again on the way to the car park and you just nod and smile at him awkwardly.
Someone who can't even remember what football club he pretends to support?
If you were in a pub stuck talking to both of them you'd be dying to get away, but could you honestly say Miliband was the one who swung it for you?
talking to Ed about Manic Miner and other mid 80s videogames. Not so sure I'd go much beyond that though.
before this election, I didn't much like him. Now I reckon we'd be best mates.
if I say that I hope this next parliament gives Cameron a coronary?
and you have to work out which shade of green has actually won
I kept expecting him to take Simon Hughes away and the whole thing to fall down
not that there's going to be a tory majority
Erm fuck you?
the ex-MP Nick Clegg
That exit poll is starting to look very ominous/correct.
Be interesting to see the post-mortem of the opinion polls up till now based on this. An undetected swing has come from somewhere. Too early to see where but could just be a massive incumbency/Tory swing that even the poll weightings couldn't detect. I mean I thought 260 was the absolute Labour floor but < 240?? Jesus fucking Christ. Ashcroft had a 5% LAB lead in Nuneaton 6 weeks ago. Jesus. Fucking. Christ.
This is bleak.
You got your tin hat ready?
1) The weightings were wrong or
2) People have consistently been lying to pollsters.
The latter feels unlikely given that the exit poll was correct; why would people lie to Yougov, Opinium, ICM etc about their intention and then suddenly tell the truth afterwards?
no one need say anything.
Analyse people not on what they say but on what they DO.
I always understood it was done on exit from the polling station.
33% decided how they'd vote this week, 11% decided today.
Seems most of those 11% went Tory. Incumbency factor. We know people lie to pollsters but not to THIS degree surely...
simply because of YouGov - they revisited today and found no swing - if there was one on anywhere near this magnitude then they should have picked something up.
I mean YouGov's one thing - NO pollster called this! Remarkable.
Nate Silver's still holding out for 273 CON 273 LAB :D
still early days to see how this is going to translate into an actual government. Lib Dem wipeout could make all the difference but at 300+ Tory seats that shits all over the `Piss Off Number` that the Tories were looking at for governing with a minority.
And this all means that prick Dan Hodges was pretty right all along. Right for the wrong reasons (he said Tory votes/swing would be bolstered by fleeing UKIP-ers but the UKIP vote is holding up) but right all the same. Fucker.
We live in a scared tory country. This really IS 1992 all over again.
This is the point where the gloves actually come off. We're going to have riots.
...that the Blairites were right. England is a default Tory country unless a centrist Labour party can convince them otherwise.
jelly & ice cream
Enjoy all that oil or whatever the fuck.
yet we're still going to get fucked because england voted tory.
This is all Labour's fault for turning into tories
it's a bit I'm Alright Jack, like Limmy who only cares about Scottish people
God fuck off https://twitter.com/DaftLimmy/status/596493718938583040
>lol tories tho
thanks novoters. cunts
That'll be the bitterest £40 I'll ever spend.
Tactical voting has gone tits up for me twice now. Think I can ignore the whole destruction of the UK over the next five years if I get involved in the finer details of party politics...also the drawbridge mentality would suit me perfectly right now.
Stand for office.
"Very close there to a Labour concession that David Cameron is going back into Number 10, very important moment"
No it isn't. It has no effect on anything.
this was Labour's problem in 2010 - they fractured almost immediately with a number of senior members arguing against going into government. If they're doing the same again already then it doesn't matter what the party arithmetic says - they're not going to have the discipline to hold together any slim majority they might be able to cobble together.
I don't think there'll be a fracture, just another rather tame leader election. Problem is there's no outstanding candidates.
The exit poll would have spooked them, but they'd have a better line by now if they knew they'd lost 5 hours ago.
Agree on the leadership... frankly, I can't see a good leader-in-waiting in any party at the moment.
Harriet Harman knew the game was up then.
that the exit poll `didn't look right` seemed fair to me 4 hours ago. That would've been the Labour line. They're looking at it now in as much disbelief as we all are I think.
John Mann on sniper duties.
A man much traduced, by people who aren't worth a penny.
He's served for 18 years and only a cunt would criticise him for it.
Seems to be a well respected public servant, regardless of how he's been flailing and helpless in this campaign. Seems a good man overall. Cue a Wza linkfest offering supposed evidence to the contrary :)
and a good man he was... for 17 and a half years.
Just holding out for the calls in Hallam and South Thanet now I think.
Simon Hughes on the way out in Bermondsey. As indicative of the LD collapse as anything that.
But I'm expecting a blue sweep in both Bath and Ludlow.
And they took Telford too.
So much misery.
what time is the south thanet result expected? would love to see farage losing before I go to bed
oh well. I'll save it as a treat for tomorrow.
Spent the last 7 days pretty much non-stop campaigning for every vote. Endured quite a lot of pain to keep going. Knew by 10 tonight that we'd lost it. Utterly devastated and terrified about what will happen in the next 5 years. My dads still not home from the count and I cant sleep without hugging him.
First off: stay strong.
This is how politics goes. Congratulations and applause for the effort you've put in; you have made a difference, however it might seem.
Five more years may seem an eternity, but it goes quickly. In five years time you will still feel an urge to change things, and it will still be possible to see ways things can change.
Stay strong, and please, PLEASE, be proud of your efforts.
for anything fairer than what we have now, even if I don't agree with them/their parties.
But I think this one will look as bad tomorrow in the cold light of day though. We won't have a welfare state in 5 years time.
Despite what people are saying about Scotland voting for some sort of progressive alternative, its nothing of the sort. People are voting for nationalism in the same thoughtless tribal way they used to vote labour. Except its now even harder to link it to any socialist project. People can't explain why they're voting SNP. they say things like "I'm voting for Nicola" ( wasn't even a candidate) and cant even explain why they don't like labour anymore. Which makes sense since labour is the furthest to the left that it has been for decades. Why are people only desserting us now? It's populism...
Will always admire what Miliband has trid to achieve in the circumstances.
It seemed to me like they were more right than usual, shows how much I know
is that they've drifted right on Immigration, but been pulled tp the left somewhat by Miliband on most social and economic matters. I don't think DD's assessment of where Labour stand is unreasonable, even if I'm not convinced by the rest of her post.
attitudes like this are exactly why labour were completely destroyed in scotland
You don't sound like someone who has a lot of time tAlking to Labour voters who have gone SNP. They're certainly not going SNP because they want more organised labour.
labour are perfect, the electorate are doing it wrong, SNP BAD
"Labour are perfect" away from that.
Do you not believe in a strong Labour movement, japes?
Let's all have a group hug to keep you warm till your Dad gets home.
It won't be much comfort, but the fact you've put your all in to campaign for your values and beliefs is more than most people can say they've done. You should feel really proud of what you've contributed, regardless of how the vote has gone, and keep campaigning!
I may often disagree with what you say, but I've got immense respect for what you do for what you believe in DD. Difficult as it may be right now, keep the faith and keep plugging away from within - you might just help turn Labour back into a party that some of us who've turned away feel we can turn back to in the future.
Still not as much as 4 years of tuition fees!!!
have prevented an SNP clean sweep.
Gonna be massive inquests at both Labour and Lib Dem HQs, as well as at all the pollsters.
Crossing my fingers that the Conservatives fail to get a majority so the old chestnut of "FPTP" producing majorities doesn't rear it's head again.
with no idea what he's going to do with the rest of his life. Simon Hughes too.
Poor chap. He's one of the good guys.
UKIP didn't win Thurrock though. The crummiest crumb of comfort.
but I can understand where he's coming from with his politics. Like David Davis, he's one of that relatively rare breed of right-wing politicians I find it quite easy to respect, even if I disagree with where they stand.
He's done a good shift in Clacton. Seems a respected and hard-working constituency MP.
He's been campaigning wide of the UKIP party line. He wants to reimagine UKIP as a place for disaffected Libertarian Tories, of which there are many. He isn't a reactionary racist. I think he'll become leader and make UKIP a much more noble and cerebral prospect. Thing is, I don't know if there's votes in it if you attempt to break from the racist populism the party base seems to be founded on. Will be interesting to see what happens for sure.
on whether he can use the profile Farage has earnt UKIP to quickly position them as THE party for Libetarians on the right or not and in the medium term relies on PR. Today is almost certainly their high water mark without beneficial reform, although they'll have the potential to remain a thorn in the other parties' sides.
There's going to be chaos in them there ranks. Duplicitous shower of bastards that many of them are.
He doesn't even look relieved or happy. He knows he's a lucky fucker.
Just lying here thinking about how depressing it is and I can't clear my head. Scotland can fuck off though.
since Thatcher fucked off.
I am drinking every time the snp get a seat and chuggig whenever lib dems get a seat
Brought 4 cans of Strongbow to my friends house and thought I'd drink 2. Halfway through the fourth.
then FUCKING YES when she lost
...that'll be... :/
Bf loves him (he's his mp) and all his mates have met him before; he seems to have a real community presence generally. Apparently only the Tories were actuslly campaigning in Morley though :/
Thoroughly decent, intelligent man.
Getting a bit emotional about this.
Hoping Balls scrapes through. I want some good news for bf when he wakes up; he's very Labour
There's something special and unique going on in Scotland atm and let's be honest; people should vote for who they want. Actually I will feel more galvanised if Labour lose overall than win; more opportunity for Tories to obviously fuck up this term (to the extent that blinkered voters notice) and be kept out for a generation at the next election. I am so ready to fight these bellends and I hope others are too. (/Strongbow thoughts)
if all the Labour + SNP seats still don't come close to the Tories, as is predicted. It's Labour who have failed to win this election against a massively unpopular coalition government.
I can't say I understand why, but clearly something is amiss with how they're appealing to the electorate. Pretty sure it's mostly people being gullible about the economy though and that's something that is almost impossible to counter without some pro-Labour media coverage ;/
Guess labour were hit in England by the scaremongering around the SNP though so it is not just the seats they directly lost to them that hurt them
no way I can scroll through the entire thread tho
I've seen the general tone tho
She has work at 8am though so...
(Being an unemployed bum I can go to bed when I get home. Might wait until my dad and bro get home from work though so I don't need to hear them gloat)
eating his hat?
that they'll sort out some kind of edible hat and make it some kind of feature on This Week or the the Daily Politics in a couple of weeks time.
plus I'm drunk!
Everybody wanted labour taught a lesson in scotland, but nobody wants the tories. *shrug emoji*
I voted SEP, personally.
the lib dems went into government with the tories and have severely damaged the country. make him eat the fucking hat then dissolve the lib dems and they all have to do a silly dance in trafalgar square and are never allowed to go to a swimming pool or council leisure facility again. for ever, no returns.
Even if Labour had won *all* the SNP seats, they'd still only be on 286 v. the Tories on 325 (current BBC projections). The SNP haven't let the Tories in.
I always liked him more than public opinion for underdog reasons but he's actually proper grown on me during the campaign. gutted he won't be able to prove the media wrong and prove he is likeable to many :(
halt the proceedings!
A big shame. But he can't carry on from this I'm afraid.
is there a scotland/federalist prospect that could unite or galvanise the anti tory/ukip sentiment in the uk over the next 5 years?
Every time he speaks it makes me furiously angry. I refuse to believe that its possible within the next decade that he could become PM. I would vote ISIS over him.
Won't even have the consolation of some #beertokens at the end of all of this horror.
For absolute fuck's sake.
*pulls out revolver and shoots self*
which specific seats have the tories snatched or held onto against all odds, polling, opionion and fucking logic?
like, their job is doing polls, how did they not know?
Looks like Balls and Farage's seats aren't going to be called for another 3 hours. I've been up for 24 hours. I'm off.
for not forecasting this and encouraging more people into voting anti tory or tactically/whatever? has the 'oh i'll vote green/plaid/trade unionist this time' brigade affected anything?, have labour lost any safe seats?
sorry too drunk and tired to actually look for myself and you seem to be a expert.
*are there any?
and a lot more people than expected ended up voting Tory.
Think that's about all we know right now, but doesn't seem like "protest" votes, even for UKIP, have had much impact on anything.
Have they basically made zero gains, while losing Scotland?
There's seemingly no great pattern to how the English seats are going, except the Lib Dems being wiped out, with Labour and Tories making random gains off each other here and there.
that that would happen. In this political climate, who would be moving away from the Tories? They saved the economy!
No Money Memo
Saved The Economy
For Decent Hard-Working Families
and reported to the police. Good riddance.
Waking up to what appears to be shite news :(
What have the turnouts been like guys? Similar to 2010? Lib dem defecting votes split between lab and greens? Or disenfranchised voters just not turning up?
But Very similar to 2010 in England.
than Labour - and the Lib Dems have been wiped out. Tory support seems about 6-7% higher than expected.
Those seem to be the main things the polling missed.
for fucking themselves AND the rest of this country. Always knew they were Tories in disguise.
For being such an unconvincing, spineless alternative
The Labour party is only as effective as the people who believe in a genuinely left of centre alternative and want to build a movement. If you think the Labour party is the vehicle for challenging and beating the Tories then you should use it. The membership of the party are to the left of the leadership on most things and are committed to doing this.
Labor didnt lose votes to the Tories and UKIP because we weren't left wing enough. the situation with the SNP is more complicated (they stole half our manifesto).
Doesn't make sense at all.
Struggling to put together what I've been watching all day. Uch!
INDEPENDENCE FOR BRIGHTON NOW!
because they have a george osborne interview to conduct
The BBC have been pretty much all over the shop with speeches...
To see the neighbour come back after a long nights work.
Bit weird, George.
Emigrating to Canada
And then move to another eu country
Has Scotland fucked us all?
if scotland voted 100% labour it wouldn't have mattered
as the tory scaremongering about SNP holding the balance of power was by all accounts very successful in marginals.
not blaming the scottish for voting for who they wanted, obviously, but we're all fucked, in part because of it
so not only should we have voted 100% labour, but we should have declared our intention 12 months in advance?
anything short of that and it's our fault for letting the tories in. sorry but I'm not having that.
or, like, during the polling of the campaign
and i clearly didnt say "you" "should" have done that. but if you had, the tories would probably be out
deal with ye own shitey country
I need you lot to help.
The weather's great, right?
recently it's been unseasonably warm, just a sunny prediction of the future
The Tories will have a 70+ seat majority and get whatever they want through then?
(Good tbh, can't stand him)
Thanet have only just started counting apparently ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Farage not getting in is about the only possible small piece of good news left.
Poll would be wrong. Wake up to it being even worse! A fucking con majority! trident, selling off more social housing, more welfare cuts, nhs Cameron's last term as well, will probably want to go out with a bang/tory legacy. merry christmas!
I'm very sorry.
this turns out to be massive electoral fraud, and David Cameron goes to jail, and then a bird poos on David Cameron when he is exercising in the Yard.
But it does make it likely Cameron will be held to ransom by some of his nuttier MPs - expect endless debates about Europe and, if we're lucky, the Tories tearing themselves to pieces over it.
tories defeating themselves over Europe is our best hope for change
the uk is actually going to vote itself out of europe isn't it?
back to splendid isolation.
we have a foot in and a foot out of europe, we are the perfect conduit for those wishing to find ways through the normal barriers, thus we have interest from Japan the US China etc that we wouldnt otherwise.
It would be economic suicide to abandon this position, hopefully many tories and businesses also feel this an would campaign (successfully) to not abandon this advantage (Its not like we have many other USPs) and I would have thought that a vaguely rational cabinet would follow more informed economic opinion rather than the uninformed ignorant public.
I'd say they would right now but I do wonder if much of the big business which backs the Tories will put a lot of effort into trying to get a Yes vote. And people clearly love keeping things the way they are right? Right?!
hold the whip hand, with the DUP, UUP and UKIP as his back up option.
so it's even worse than a bigger majority?
Just so you can say you elected of the good ones?
I want to come out
plus its veggie freindly.
A man could go vegan there.
Plus I could wear what I wanted to when I went out, without the fear of being stoned..... in a bad way.
1.5m Scots getting 50 seats whilst 1m greens get 1. What a joke.
We might get some electoral reform now...oh wait. Cheers for that one as well voters!
we tried to leave, don't blame us for Westminster's failings
but if the SNP weren't called teh SNP but the "vaguely leftish anti austerity devolution party", and contended in every seat, they would have got many more votes and a similar number of seats
like, dont hate them for being local
only back then I was *quite* the dish.
Don't even have my flowing locks of auburn hair to comfort me now.
whip round for the mini-bus, any cunt who want's in has until sundown
just gonna end it all now, cya
Probably for the best in the circumstances. How the fuck did it come to this though?
in that speech earlier, bit too late though as usual
Ukip are the National Front in different clothing. Soiled BNP skin suit discarded in the corner of the room.
The EU predicament legitimises their abhorrent racism.
On today of all days (yes, ostrich suit on), VE Day, where we remember the attempted extermination of a people, amongst other things, we find people have an appetite to see themselves as different, as better.
People are shit
how embarrassing, just bawled me eyes out on a train. i really need to stop doing all-nighters.
gonna see how things go til after the EU referendum (don't think we will vote to leave but who knows...), then choose a party and campaign the fuck out of them. not going to let this happen again.
They couldn't get a majority last time and after 5 years of being unpopular, slowly taking the country apart and attacking the poor and vulnerable I thought people might vote for change. Guess the scare mongering by the right wing press worked...
Guys come and get involved please.
It could be great fun!
Thinking about it enough - and with a heavy dose of retrospect - this result ACTUALLY seems plainly and blindingly obvious.
Need to spend the weekend reflecting on just how many poor judgements I've made in the last 5 years about this. My very bones have taken one hell of a beating.
But yeah, I'm not sure why Labour looking like losing all their seats in Scotland but still doing well in the polls overall didn't seem a bit odd or why I bought the narrative that UKIPs rise in vote percentage would be detrimental to the Tories when most of the UKIP voters I know are ex-Labour.
Traditionally Labour voting, working class people buying into the rhetoric that they're struggling as a result of immigrants and defecting to UKIP is a much, much bigger factor than Tories who think that the current lot aren't right-wing enough.
It seems pretty clear there is a large bloc of voters in the UK who follow a very recognisable pattern. There's nothing shy about them. They are just ordinary voters who, when faced with an uncertain political landscape just go into the voting booths and vote conservative as the "safe" option. Then they leave the booths and don't tell anyone what they've done.
This Labour party hasn't convinced enough floating voters to vote for it. The floaters went Tory in their droves. The Lib Dem vote also seems to have gone strongly to the Tories too and not Labour. People can cite the press and Tory scaremongering all they like, but for too long too many voters couldn't vote for this iteration of the Labour Party. And that is Miliband's fault and Miliband's fault alone. As I'm sure he'll concede when he resigns in about an hour's time.
Labour has an existential quagmire on its hands. Not left wing enough in Scotland; not right wing enough in England. What can they/we do?
John Reid, Kate Hoey and Alistair Campbell, and actually feel sympathy for them. This is an existential crisis moment for the Labour party.
Didn't give him credit in the past for how Labour through and through he is.
(Probably because I spend too much time in echo chambers like this place and Twitter and that) but they seemed to haemorrhage voters to the Greens (and smaller more left leaning parties) amongst my peers.
Probably idealistic in the extreme but I feel like the best move for Labour would be to stop making concessions to the right wing and to actually lurch left given the entire media seems to be perpetuating the myth that that's what they did this time.
and it didn't work.
People in the vast swathes of blue across the (English) electoral map swing elections.
Labour haven't won an election from the left since... what, 1974?
Like it or not, we're on the losing side and are likely to continue to be. Literally nothing that we can do about it.
that the conservatives scraping a slender parliamentary majority feels so much like a devastating tidal wave of right wing destruction pouring over the whole country.
seeing as last time they were well fucking short of one. I thought they might just get over the line here with help from the Lib Dems/DUP but this increase in seat numbers just feels like an endorsement of five years of bullshit.
but as things stand UKIP have more votes that the SNP and the Lib Dems combined.
I'm not sure I still want to live in this country.
The SNP only standing in a fraction of the country and the Lib Dems being heavily tainted.
I'm just horrified.
It seems to be getting equated to nationalism and treated as a post-independence referendum phenomenon, but I don't think that's true. The vote for SNP over labour has been evident since 2007ish, when support for independence was relatively low (it only really increased during the referendum campaign).
Last night would have happened, to an extent at least, in 2010, we're it not for the fact that a vote for labour was seen as the only real anti-tory possibility. I think that changed this year as a result of the coalition, and the fact that minority/coalition government is seen as a viable thing in the mind of the electorate, which I don’t think was the case so much in 2010.
This time, the public saw two anti-tory possibilities and voted for the one they wanted.
of the idea that the SNP coming into government (we can lol at that now) would be so with the mandate solely to break up the UK. Sturgeon, whilst ultimately wanting independence, seems a much defter, careful and pragmatic politician than that.
The SNP's rise is a reaction to 80s Conservatism and an indifference (whether real or imagined) from Westminster to the Scottish electorate. Independence is one tool in their box, but it's not the only, or biggest, one.
Based on what he's said so far, expect him to go out swinging if he loses - apprently the Mail and the Sun have been ganging up on UKIP! How unfair!
Only 18,000 votes in it. Next time Al.
please let's never see the cunt again
that without him at the front the party will drop back to irrelevance. The Respect effect.
blaming "rise of Scottish Nationalism" hahaha see ya after man
to ascribe "fear of Scottish nationalism" to a significant increase in the tory vote in England. Stupid it may be, but it's definitely one of the reasons why we have a tory government.
which is obviously scotland's fault
There's no shortage of stupid reasons to pick to vote conservative. It's just that that was a popular one this time.
don't know who he voted for but my dad gave this reason for wanting the tory-lib dem coaltion to continue over a labour government
how his party the supposed "genuine alternative" would rather add to that fear than temper it and just ended up playing into the Tory's hands. That and, what the hell has England got to be afraid of Scotland :D
I'm glad you can laugh. I have to tell you I'm pretty depressed about where we're at today.
And you seem to be fairly dangerously close to telling a few hundred thousand people to stop thinking what they think and start thinking what you think because... well just because.
wasn't aware of that
"what the hell has England got to be afraid of Scotland "
As I said, hundreds of thousands of English voters have already given you your answer. It doesn't matter that you don't accept it.
and either way, Scotland voting SNP is just as democratic as England voting Tory, so what's your point caller?
it's been a stressful morning for all of us, just try to breathe
I wouldn't call it stressful. Depressing is definitely the word. Possibly even scary.
I've experienced elections like this before. 1992 and 1983 stand out as the similar ones. Somehow this one feels more worrying though.
but still maintain that Labour only have themselves to blame
I'm going to be fine. I live in London. I own a home and have a safe job that pays well. I have a final salary pension and a well-off middle class family with money to pass down the generations.
The tories are going to do fine by me.
Forgive me for not keeping good tabs on who holds what position on here, but my understanding is that you are Scottish, live in Scotland and are a supporter of both the SNP and Scottish independence. Forgive me (and feel free to correct me) if I'm wrong there. On that understanding you are in for five years of being very disappointed at what the SNP are going to be able to do for you, and you're also going to get pounded by this government.
It's you and many others like you that I feel depressed for.
You read it here first.
The Tories need 5 more for a majority, I think. Will they get those from the last 16 seats? Probably yeah? Shut up please.
Fuck. Remember all those hours ago when that exit poll looked out-of-this-world mental? Fuck.
Sinn Fein STILL don't turn up? What fucking year is it?
Everyone's a winner!
to an illegitimate government of occupation of Ireland
Says Labour is on the wrong side of the argument on immigration, economic competence and public service reform. How long until all the New Labour jerks go away for a long time eg forever?
of old and New Labour with none of the redeeming features of either.
stupid cunty figleave twats
the Tories' vote share only increased by 0.7% from 2010.
if you started from a completely blank slate then a slim tory majority wouldn't seem a particularly groundbreaking result. To some extent the shock is about the difference between the result and widespread expectation before the election.
But the ramifications are far worse now I think - until the Tories start gouging each other's eyes over Europe, this will be treated (by them and the media) like it's a landslide victory and a ringing endorsement for all the shit they can come up with despite it being anything but.
about how awful the fallout from this is going to be.
Some truly terrible shit could happen in the next few years.
that the Lib Dems now have no female MPs at all?
Is Farron now a shoo-in for the leadership?
the race to be the first leader to resign.
as if he's part of Obama's security detail.
"I'm a man of my word - I will stand down...THEN I'LL STAND UP AGAIN HAHAHAHAHA!!"
Must have been a laugh a minute. Cunts.
I kept flicking over when the beeb were being boring.
it was fucking rotten.
Seeing Paxman as `comedy` anchor was just... horrendous.
as soon as he said he was resigning.
Not sure I can bear to listen to Ed's.
Looks like they'll have around 331 seats, but the 'progressives' will barely have 300 altogether, so it just depends on how the Tories handle their majority and their next leadership election. And the Euro referendum. And the property bubble crash. And Scottish Devolution. And whether the Lib Dems cease to exist.
i really thought it was the end. this is so so so depressing
given that it's hugely beneficial to his preferred party.
UKIP only have one seat despite getting more votes than SNP ands the Lib Dems combined, so let's be grateful for something.
if it meant we were getting a roughly proportional house.
if labour hadn't shit the bed in england then we could have had a confidence & supply arrangement and everyone would have lived happily ever after.
but blaming this election result on the Scots is just fucking idiotic too.
it wasn't exactly outwith the realms of possibility was it?
even after ed gave it a bit of "do what we tell you or I'll ignore your entire country"
Miliband clearly lost this election in England. Whether or not he pissed off the Scots that's what happened. And being more ameliorative towards either Scottish voters or the SNP would surely have given even more ammunition to the tories, and would have lost him even more votes south of the border.
don't get my logic about what?
if labour had done better in england we would have a labour government no matter what happened in scotland was my point
it's a real relief to be having a discussion with a Scot where I have a moment when I realise "Oh yeah now I get what you mean" and actually agree with it!
Yes I get you now. You are right, if Miliband had done better in England then there was a chance he could have been in government. As I've said before I don't think confidence and supply with the SNP would ever have been an option, but that doesn't matter now.
That said of course part of the reason he didn't do well in England was tied up with the way Scotland looked like voting (and in the end did vote). But that's politics. Your opponents will attack you where the opportunities arise, and for Miliband that was on the subject of possible Scottish influence on any potential government he might have tried to form.
So I don't think there was ever a way out for him, sadly.
Now, we have a Conservative majority and Disunited Kingdom with added friction.
My facebook feed is full of people saying 'victory for scotland' without realising that they are significantly more Tory today than they were yesterday, constitutionally. I don't think a lot of people understand how Westminster works. that said, for as long as the Scottish parliament exists, then a lot of decision making can be done north of the border. But this was always the case anyway, regardless of the election.
44,058 Sinn Fein
england is now a radical, neo-liberal fiefdom of the international non-dom oligarchate. the new normal is an nhs paywall in -5 years, entrenched two-tier education from cradle to adulthood, economic fate shackled by birth, culture by the rich for the rich, shut-shop hatemonger media, moral / geo-political isolationism and tea-cosy xenophobic radicalisation. the history of political economies moves, and sometimes in a circular fashion. there are now no grounds for supposing that england is not fast becoming once more a radical, atavistic state where you cannot be poor, black, disabled or foreign, and have an ice cream cones chance in hell. it took the blood sacrifice of two world wars for fairness to take root in england and that socio-democratic wave has now run dry. the welfare state in england is dead: it's downton abbey with ipads. this is the scariest election result in 31 years, and even as a White foreigner, i am scared.
hope is in the gutter, looking to the stars.
Then he actually said "thank you for the selfies and the Milifandom"???
Fucking hell. Bit of dignity man.
Bet you are you saucy bugger
Wouldn't blame him if he was eating a cornetto during the speech, wearing shorts and t-shirt.
thought it was a pretty sweet/classy move tbh
I want the last few to finish up so I can get my fucking money now please
ended the day thinking you were probably going to be edged out of power, your staff drawing up plans to try and strong-arm you back into power etc. You wake up to find your people have given you and your lizard policies a massive vote of confidence, all of your enemies are in disarray with their leaders resigning left, (extreme) right and centre, and you're free to continue strip-mining the country as you may. Doubt his pseudo-victory in 2010 felt anywhere near as good.
he's going to purr down the line at the queen
Where the Tories all trashed parliament, spray painting unlucky losers on the wall etc before walking out. Then the next morning they all come back and go "Oh, now we have to clean up this mess".
Now, it's not exactly like 1992, but he's got a mass of shit to deal with. He's unleashed the pandora's box of English nationalism and has set in motion an inexorable march to the break up of the United Kingdom. Debt and borrowing is out of control. He has £8bn of unfunded boosts to make to the NHS. With a narrow majority and an EU promised referendum he's created Major's Bastards 2.0. He's going to face an opposition leader that in no way can be an incompetent as the last and as he's not standing for a third term he'll have 2 years at the end as a lame duck.
I'd be terrified
He's also apparently introducing a crazy law pledging not to raise taxes at any point in the next 5 years...
Obviously most of that cascade of shit will be thrust on to the shoulders of the poor, disabled, immigrants, etc. but it's certainly not going to be plain sailing.
last quarter (there have now been four quarters in a row of slowing growth), and you'll start to see the results of a lot of their first-term policies coming through. Many of the social impacts are subject to the 'lead-lag-effect' taking a good few years to be realised. Trends in things like the crime rate, suicide rate, bed-blocking, homelessness etc will start to reverse, if they haven't already. It'll be like living in the early-90s again.
Add that to a housing market that's been over-inflated, private debt that's now at record levels, productivity that's plummeted, PPI payments that have dried up and the removal of money from the bottom of the economy where it is of most use, and you're looking at a very shaken next few years.
for whatever reason where i'm from it was always tories vs lib dems, with lib dem being your lefty/anti-tory choice, can understand then that those lib dem voters would be pissed off by the coalition, and their vote is down by around 20 percentage points in loads of constituencies, but why is so much of that vote now going to ukip/conservative?
I guess Labour working out how to appeal to people outside cities would be good for their recovery, what do people outside cities want?
i'm thinking a lot of former lib dems DID vote Labour and Green, but an almost equally significant amount of Labour voters went UKIP.
in a lot of places there's not enough Labour support to account for that, take http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000988 where my parents live. If all the Labour and Green (@thugclive) voters were previously Lib Dems that accounts for less than half of the lib dem collapse. Gonna have to ask them wtf they were playing at.
I don't know the answer, but there's such a big difference in way of life between city and country living. even just small things, like people not knowing what the right terms for people of different ethnicities are - it's not because they're racist or malicious, merely because it's just not something that crops up in people's day to day lives if they live in a very white rural neighbourhood. I noticed in that thread about Benedict Cumberbatch referring to 'coloured people' that a lot of posters were horrified at the thought that anyone in this day and age could not know it was wrong to say that - which struck me as quite naive; both my parents, who aren't totally out of touch and use the internet/social media a lot, were baffled when I tried to explain it to them. they'd been taught that 'coloured' was the politically correct term to use!
I think there's something of an urban bubble, where people in cities can't comprehend that certain issues that are a priority there aren't really an issue for people in the country, and it's really easy for rural folks to be dismissed as being stupid or racist by city-dwellers without taking time to examine why things are the way they are. there are a hell of a lot of rural constituencies that have been totally dominated by the Conservatives and impinged on by a UKIP influence - Labour needs to work out how they can be progressive whilst also including isolated communities. unfortunately, that's quite hard to reconcile.
wonder if cameron regrets saying he won't run in another election
and turn it into a badminton league
my head's gone weird
absolutely despise nationalism beyond bearing. English and Scottish. (and welsh but fuck that)
I've been struggling to articulate this properly so I'll give it a crack, but there was something really grating about the SNP supporters' reaction of uncontrollable joy as it's "we're alright jack, we can just leave" when millions of people are going to suffer horribly.
They can obviously vote for whoever they want, but the scale of jubilation when, as an internationalist, the barbarous scale of the next 5 years unfurls ahead of our eyes was incomprehensible to me
people were happy that a labour party that treated them with nothing but contempt were finally being removed.
since forever we've not had a vote at all. we don't want tories so we have to vote labour. absolutely zero choice about anything. but at this election, when coalitions are suddenly a legitimate form of government, that restriction has finally been lifted and scotland is FINALLY able to show its disdain with the way labour has drifted further and further to the right. seems like a good reason to celebrate to me.
but don't worry, we know fine well how shit the next five years are going to be
all the rest of your argument falls down after that
ah shit, someone probably should have mentioned that yesterday
but the reality is complicated and can't be conveyed to people who aren't necessarily politically literate, especially when the emotional grip of nationalism has taken hold
lack of self-awareness much?
you're gonna have to justify how a party supporting controls on immigration means they're necessarily nationalist. There was, as far as I've seen, not a single bit of nationalist rhetoric from labour in the immigration debate, whatever you think of the merits of their policies (and i'm not gonna have this argument again so don't try).
The greens support controls on immigration, incidentally.
and I agree in part with you. there is NO EVIDENCE that the SNP's policies are any/ much more left wing than Labour's but you need to accept that labour's message just didn't work at all in Scotland- they will probably never be forgiven for getting into bed with the tories in Better together, and their message to the people of Scotland was weak and fragmented. Bottom line, in Scotland now, labour = England, and the scots hate nothing more than being patronised by England or its spokespeople.
As for how you fucked it up in england and wales- god give me strength, it's incredible how you managed to do it. Somehow, you managed to panic the lefties that you were going to cut as deep as the Torie, while simultaneously panicking your centrist followers that you were going to plough ahead with lofty borrowing and ignore the deficit. The left didn't trust that you weren't following a tory agenda, and the right of your party shat itself that you were going to be irresponsible. So you lost both extremes of your support.
"We will enforce the minimum wage!"
snp: scrap trident
lab: renew trident
snp: min wage £8.70 by 2020
lab: min wage £8.00 by 2019
snp: increase in public spending 0.5% per year
lab: further public spending cuts
plus labours horrible fucking anti immigrant rhetoric.
but then I'm not politically literate so fuck knows, eh
plus snp increase to the top rate of tax vs lab tax freeze
they're in fundamentally different positions with a different electoral base and different realities with regards to power. Remember how many 'good' policies (by common leftist consent) the lib dems had in their 2010 manifesto? Well then.
the scottish socialist party is actually to the right of labour too, because they weren't going to have a uk prime minister either
jesus, someone get this guy a fucking bib
just as not all Labour voters are "socialists". Get over yersel'
Is inclusive 'come and join us and share in our prosperity and self-determination' nationalism & not 'gun emplacements at the borders kick out all the funny looking ones Heil Churchill ruddy brave soldier let's drink to the empire' Nationalism
the whole Yes campaign last year was built on hope and prospect of forming an inclusive and fairer society (however idealistic that almost certainly is), who would still have an international role, not some want to be separatist like a lot of the UK would like to be.
We’ve all learned a very important lesson about disappointment
Nobody in life gets everything they want, and realising this is what stops us from becoming entitled. This is why we have pets as children, so that we can learn what it feels like when something we love dies. There’s a lot we can all take from this. Especially first-time voters. Get used to this feeling of heartbreak, kids. This is literally all there is, and none of it is good, and then we die.
yes, mind when Scotland lost the referendum, very important lesson
feel far worse about this result than i was expecting, it's sort of sunk in through the morning and deflated me more and more.
what a total mess....
i've been following this loads for the last few weeks so am totally shocked by the result, just didn't see it coming at all
i'm not sure if i'm more depressed about what the tories are going to do with a majority over the next FIVE years, about this surge of nationalism that we are experiencing, or (with the inevitable boundary changes) the wipeout of any kind of opposition.
this feels bleak, and i'm not even particularly anti-tory, just felt like we were going through a change (for the better) of how politics was going to have to be conducted (end of two party politics etc), and now that's all going to be back to square one.
I really thought a hung Parliament would be a decisive sign that the UK must adopt PR but instead there's Cameron's reanimated ham face with it's shit eating grin
only 24% of the electorate voted Tory & they have 100% of the power - this ought to be a clear enough sign that the UK needs PR but it won't get it as long as 24% of the electorate can translate into 100% of the power
to give them 100% of the power. Obviously.
You can't have a house majority under PR with 33.1% of the vote - I refuse yo believe that turnout would be less than 2/3rds under PR
Turnout at the last two general elections was 65% and 66% respectively.
Sounds awful and European, let's stick with our great system.
A grand coalition, obviously.
so 65% of voters are represented by the government (rather than the 35% here). Sounds good to me.
66% turn out
50% of that for a majority
(as for those specific stats, last time out Merkel got 41.5% and her coalition partners got 25.7%, ie ~65%)
You said 33.1% of the electorate not the vote - which makes even less sense
"24% of the electorate voted Tory & they have 100% of the power"
The Tories won 37% of the vote. Think about it.
With 33.1% of the vote
You might be able to win one with 33.1% of the electorate - the qualifying condition being that it would need a turnout of 66% or less as per your Germany example
Still a long way from the results of this election though - Con got 38% of the vote, 24% of the electorate
Also, people vote differently under PR and the two-party system can give way to plurality of choice
What we're decrying here is the loss of opportunity for electoral reform that had passed now that the Conservatives have crept over the line for a majority
is as likely as turkeys voting for Christmas.
The three parties with the most seats are all over-represented due to the 'first post the post' system. And that will happen after every election, regardless of the parties involved.
That's my point - and Chris's before mine - and everyone's who this'd my post
It's fucking galling when 24 hours ago it looked so different
People complaining about a particular party (or a coalition government) getting into power despite receiving less than 50% of the total potential votes available (i.e. the electorate) under a first past the post system can have just as much ground to complain under a PR system, where the same would happen unless turnout would dramatically increase.
Percentage of electorate is not a valid statistic to argue for or against a mandate to govern in either voting system.
I got more thises than you so I win the argument
And there's no point complaining that there's a better or fairer way to judge who's right because there will never be a perfect way so from now on you have to do what I tell you
next time some right-wing cunt argues that a strike action is illegal because only 20% of union members voted for the strike in their ballot, despite this being the majority of people who actually bothered to vote.
and the fact that one group of people can take advantage of an inherent bias in the system that favours them to then administer further changes in the system to further bias the system in their favour (or at least disadvantage their opposition) is problematic & worth highlighting
I mean that this Govt. will make striking all but illegal by bringing in terms on the basis of electoral turnout rather than voter turnout
by questioning the legitimacy of the new government based on the fact that only 24% of the electorate voted for them.
1) I haven't questioned the legitimacy of the new Govt - I've highlighted the bias within the system
2) I've attempted to discuss some ways in which at least part of that bias might be negated or recalibrated/corrected
3) I've further highlighted that the bias within the system that leads to power being concentrated in the hands of a minority can (and probably will under this Government) lead to that minority using their power to amplify the bias in their favour
but these three points are details leading from the overarching point which is as follows;
that merely a day before the election, all the polls pointing to a hung Parliament was a great impetus for those of us (many) who would rather see PR than fptp/winner takes all and the fact that the day after the election that possibility has seemingly been wiped out for the foreseeable future therefore I AM DISAPPOINT
and that's all really - not sure why you're arguing against all the folks here who, for this main reason, are disappoint
The winner of an election/ballot is only legitimate if a minimum of 40% of the electorate voted for you.
Sajid Javid thinks the General Election result has no legitimacy ?
"It general elections, the constituency is usually one of the last to declare a result - the delay in bringing the ballot boxes over from the Isles of Scilly means that counting does not begin until the following day. However, in 1987 and 1992 the constituency did count during the night rather than the next day. The seat was declared at about 1:30 am in 1987 and about 3:45 am in 1992."
It's easy when you try
(extremely embarrassing that we still vote Tory)
It's been LibDem there since forever (for the last 4 GEs anyway). Will be interesting (boring) to see what today brings.
Russell Brand resigns from politics
it's all just an ego trip for him isn't it?
he's only a comedian
as much as I don't like him, I'd rather he engaged rather than turned away from politics because of a result they didn't like. Hopefully he at least keeps doing the grassroots stuff around housing and suchlike.
they had a bowl of sweets at the registration desk in my polling station.
that sounds illegal. The election will have to be re-run.
the last time the third party wasn't a liberal of some kind it was Sinn Féin in 1918
"David Cameron is the first PM since Lord Salisbury in 1900 to increase vote share at next election after being PM for more than 18 months"
"The BNP's share of the vote has dropped by 99.7%, and it got 1,667 votes in total. Beaten by the 'Cannabis is Safer than Alcohol Party'."
:D good stuff
how would you feel about 80 UKIP seats?
but it would be a fair representation of those people's votes.
i reckon if there was PR then policy would really change - UKIP wouldnt have the antiestablishment edge to them, as people would know that their votes would count
which is good.
i'm for anything that makes the vote fairer.
BUT IF WE HAD A PROPERLY DEMOCRATIC SYSTEM THEN SOME BAD PARTIES MIGHT GET IN WAH WAH WAH.
Better to engage with people you disagree with than try to disenfranchise them.
but this would be the seats based on the current vote percentage:
Conservative Party 240
Labour Party 198
UK Independence Party 82
Liberal Democrats 51
Scottish National Party 31
Green Party 24
Democratic Unionist Party 4
Plaid Cymru 4
Sinn Fein 4
Ulster Unionist Party 2
Social Democratic & Labour Party 2
what coalition would we get?
with implicit support from DUP, and taking advantage of the absence of Sinn Fein from the House Of Commons.
Under the PR we have in Sweden it wouldn't look like this at all
You need to get over the 4% threshold in order to enter Parliament so the Greens for instance wouldn't have any seats at all and neither would SNP
Again, with that caveat that under PR people would vote differently - ie ideally they would vote for the party they actually support, the actual seat allocation based on GE2015 would be more like:
wrong about SNP - they got 4.7% so would just scrape in
So only Con, Lab, UKIP, LD & SNP would sit in Parliament
the seat share is kind of tricky to work out so give me a sec
CON 259 seats
LAB 213 seats
UKIP 88 seats
LD 56 seats
SNP 34 seats
so no overall majority for CON but a clear CON + UKIP coalition at 347 seats, a 44 seat majority
this pretty much mirrors the Norwegian Govt.'s current make up
interestingly there's no representation for ulster or welsh parties or independent candidates
Perhaps the nature of 'the Union' in the UK vote would mean that a move to this model of PR might need to be split regionally and aggregated or else fully devolved or some combination thereof
and actually felt a twinge of sympathy for him
call me a wanker please
CON win from LD
move your feat lose your seat.
he doesnt vote.
What's the verdict on last night's showing then?
The Natalie Bennett lost by quite some way in the end
and the whole 'hung parliament' propaganda may have played a big part in their mini-surge, but generally it's all pretty encouraging.
shame missed out on Bristol West but increased their votes by 4 times than any previous general election
I've decided. Might actually do some campaigning.
which was supposed to be the other target along with Bristol West.
What happened there?
that they realised it was a lost cause and threw most of the effort into Bristol and Brighton instead.
I guess people this time were taken in by the voterswap thing. Shame Norwich North didn't go the same way...
All so very bleak. My mind runs away at the thought of the immense damage that it looks like will be done during this parliament- the even more stringent welfare cuts, right to buy for housing association properties, continued running down of the NHS, and the biggest self-inflicted wound of all- the referendum on Europe that will surely lead to our exit from the EU.
Significant damage is going to be done that the government afterwards will not be able to undo even if it wants to.
Goodbye Britain. You were once Great; you have declined slowly and bloodily at the hands of an incompetent incestuous political elite over the last 20 years at a time when we needed visionary, revolutionary leadership after the right-wing assault on society of the 1980's. I live in exile from thee; and shall continue to do so, in the knowledge that your decline is terminal, and that your middle class shall ever-faster collapse into the underclass like eroded chalk cliffs into the ocean.
It all started with Thatcher's deregulation of the press, allowing Murdoch to take over a large percentage of the country's newspapers. That was the domino that overshadowed all else. Any Labour leader even marginally left of centre has been destroyed by the media (and far more consistently and insidiously than on just the front page on the edition before voting day). Thanks to this, politics has become the realm of fear, and being the protector that makes people feel the full force of fears they didn't even know they had originally. When the dust has settled on this election and psephologists have conducted their post-mortem we will see how fear made people vote in the way they did (and most probably vote counter to their own interests a lot of the time).
Time for another whiskey.
but it's just because I'm thick and haven't got a clue
what's going on there?
- 25,000 people voted for the worst person in the world, grant shapps.
- can't really comprehend how labour managed to alienate so many people so quickly.
- feel really sorry for wales most of all :(
- is it likely that labour would be in power if scotland was independent right now?
It's almost like something dodgy has occurred
final result was within the margin of error indicated by the polls, no?
the polls converged around a 0.5% Tory lead - the result was 7 points... on a single poll you'd say that is just barely on the fringes of MoE, but across dozens it's clear that something was wrong.
Anthony Wells is (as always) good on this - http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9411 - but to summarise it could be any (or all) of;
- Political weighting targets being wrong
- Likelyhood to Vote filters being wrong
- Shy Tory/Enthusiastic Labour effects
- Something no-one's thought of yet.
I saw about one minute of it and had to turn it over again cos it was unwatchably shit
It was basically a shit panel show of privileged private school pundit twats sitting about having a laugh as the tories won a majority.
He'll clearly win as well. When will Tory hell end?
wonder when he'll take over as leader?
but won't do a third as leader, so presumably after the leadership election started on 7th May 2020.
Just reading the predictions thread we had. I said tory lib dem coalition... This is so much worse.
like most of my friends.
Can tell he cba with another 5 years
I voted Lib Dem to keep Hughes in Bermondsey (Labour won that constituency).
Pretty happy with the result - the Tories have been helped by strong economic fundamentals - low interest rates and low inflation, strong growth and low unemployment. And ultimately Labour tried to fight this election on a socialist platform, ignoring the lessons of British political history that no Labour leader whose name has not been Tony Blair has won a general election since 1974. You win elections from the centre ground in this country, not by fighting for "progressive" politics which don't resonate in the country at large. For all the talk of "austerity", how keenly is this really being felt in the country at large when we're now seeing real wage increases and low unemployment?
Secondly, the echo chamber of the internet and social media really hasn't helped the left either. They go on forums like this or Facebook or Twitter and hear what they want to hear and see what they want to see and fail to understand or comprehend normal peoples' views in the rest of the country. They fail to even comprehend why people would vote Conservative. Until the left in the UK pull their collective heads out of their arses they won't win elections. They need to provide a policy platform which resonates with ordinary people - and they need to be economically competent and believable.
You don't win elections by winning majorities amongst the hipsters of Peckham or the latte drinkers of Hackney; you win elections by appealing to Dave & Jane in Nuneaton or Terry & Sue in Leicester.
The Labour Party if they are to stand a chance need to retake the central ground and to make a break from the disastrous Brown era. A leader like Dan Jarvis would be a big step in the right direction.
That said, for my happiness at the result, I'm disappointed that so many good Lib Dem MP's lost their seats and I'm also wary about the Conservatives governing with a majority of 12. The right of the Tory party in the Commons have the chance to put the pressure on the modernisers and the One Nation wing of the Tory party that I identify with.
There's reason to suggest "progressive" politics can resonate with an entire country. Certainly did with Scotland—a country. You could argue it's also the reason for the quadrupling of the Green party's vote share.
Parties must try to find the right mix of redistribution and aspiration. Unchecked aspiration can lead to greed and inequality. Zealous redistribution is just as divisive, as some people resent the futility of their efforts.
Neither right nor left can claim ownership of aspiration or redistribution. All parties operate on a mix of both. Labour's mix failed to convince enough people this time. No reason why a different mix will fail in five years time.
Don't confuse disappointment at the result with foaming hatred towards Tory voters. The polls showed the closest general election for over a generation. The left's miserableness is much more to do with disappointment. Any anger is misplaced. It's one thing to be angry with one person over perceived selfishness, it's quite another to be angry at the rest of the electorate.
Did you really think they wrote the manifesto to appeal to as little of the electorate as possible? Heaven knows why the polls tricked the party and its supporters that it resonated with the electorate, but they did.
I agree with your assessment about what the Labour Party must do. A move to the centre with the right highlights of redistribution will stand them in good stead.
"Progressive" policies? It was about nationalism and the chance to have a greater say at Westminster. Sturgeon cleverly positioned her party as providing the only conduit for an authentic Scottish voice at Westminster.
The closest general election in a generation according to the polls - well, the polls do seem to have understated significantly the Tory vote - the "shy Tory" factor emerging once again (why that factor exists I'm not so sure).
It wasn't just about the manifesto - it was about the tone of the party's presentation on the economy, a feeling that they didn't care enough about business, they didn't care enough about wealth creation, that many of their policies such as rent controls were base economic populism with limited appeal to the public at large. The public see through that sort of ill thought-out shite.
You say that a different mix of aspiration and re-distribution can succeed in 5 years time, but then say a move to the centre with the "right highlights of redistribution" will stand them in good stead. Is that a recognition of Labour's platform being too left-wing this time? Or do you think a different Labour leader might have won this election?
but the SNP overtaking labour's vote pre-dates the independence referendum campaign (prior to which Scottish independence wasn't a hugely popular notion) by quite a while.
They also didn't mention independence during this campaign, apart from saying that they wouldn't take a vote here as a mandate for another referendum.
I don’t doubt that nationalism played a part for some people, but I doubt it was any more than usual - people would have voted SNP in 2010 if they didn't feel that it was a wasted vote and labour were our only barrier to the tories. This time it looked very much like a hung parliament regardless of whether Scotland voted labour or SNP, so people felt free to vote SNP knowing that they'd back a labour minority government provided labour got the job done in England.
Putting it down to nationalism seems to be labour's stock response, but that seems to be a wilful misunderstanding - the SNP campaigned on a predominantly anti-austerity and anti-trident agenda, and those punched landed against labour.
Labour didn't effectively challenge the Tories' assertion that the global economic collapse in 2008 was their fault. Discussion on the deficit, the words of Osbourne and anecdotal evidence such as Liam Byrne's note chimed with electorate. Set up the story and trick the voter to thinking it was them that joined the dots in their own mind. The Tories' campaign was deadly effective despite its untruthfulness.
No doubt Miliband knew it was a misrepresentation of the truth. He just didn't know how to rebut the claims.
Few analyses were written about the focus of the election. Labour didn't do enough to debate other areas, where their hand was stronger, such as the environment or housing.
You say rent controls are 'base economic populism' but that's what offering housing association tenants the right to buy their home is. Both or none are valid.
Labour didn't do enough to convince the electorate they understand aspiration. They should run a policy mix with this at its core. Redistributive elements that are inherently Labour that have electoral support are there, Labour must find them.
Much was made of Miliband's personality, such as the bacon roll thing. David Cameron stopped pretending he supported Aston Villa. It is all bluster.
I doubt any Labour leader could win with that set of policies. It didn't promise enough to the people voting.
I wouldn't say it was too left wing. It wasn't aspirational enough, certainly. Left-wing policies with public support exist, such as the nationalisation of the railways. This example is arguably more daring than anything Labour promised this time around.
but it's hard to see how Labour can gain traction with a more nuanced debate.
There are two ways to engender aspiration:
1. Punish the poor in comparison to the rich.
2. Create a society in which the constructed barriers to success (class, public schooling, tax avoidance by big business, inherited wealth and power, unpaid internships, sexism, racism, homophobia etc etc) are broken down, giving people the ability to move up if they have the skills and the talent.
The problem with the Tories' method is that eventually you kill off the ability for people to move up and therefore their ambition.
Same with breaking apart or challenging monopolies: it's very much pro-business in that it opens up a market and encourages competition based upon business ability and skill rather than just financial size and clout.
You can only do little without it
"how keenly is this really being felt in the country at large when we're now seeing real wage increases and low unemployment?"
well up here the council funding has been cut back to basically nowt (city pool shut, libraries closed etc etc etc) and i've had disabled people who I know for a fact aren't well enough to work crying in front of me cos they've been moved off their disability benefit
so people are 'keenly feeling it' up here, not that you care
It's about the aggregate benefit for the country as a whole. Of course the people who you've mentioned matter. But decisions must be taken for the greatest aggregate benefit. That's why economic productivity, wages and jobs statistics count.
Employment figures have been exaggerated by zero hour contracts and even workfare placements.
Inflation is low which means real wages are rising again, and relatively strongly.
Do you have any stats to back up your claim concerning workfare placements?
I dunno man it flabbergasts me that Tories are seemingly fine with poor people dying quietly as long as they're okay themselves. It IS about not caring
yeah how do people even justify that opinion. "all these people have to suffer so that it'll be ok for the rest of us" obviously that means that that way of dealing with something doesn't work and another method should be used.
Just don't get it
people can't afford to eat, people trying to kill themselves after jobcentre sanction means they can't afford to support their family
"All for the aggregate benefit of the country as a whole"
2. Interest rates are low because of the poor performance of the economy.
3. Inflation is now low because of the collapse in oil prices over the past six months - in this, the Tories were VERY lucky.
4. Growth has now slowed in each of the last four quarters
Q1 2014 0.9
Q2 2014 0.8
Q3 2014 0.7
Q4 2014 0.6
Q1 2015 0.3
it's definitely not strong.
5. Labour fought the election on a pro-austerity, vaguely anti-immigration, definitely anti-welfare platform. Not on the same scale as the Tories did, but to suggest that it was socialist shows how far the discourse has shifted. In blind tests, if you asked the electorate which policies they agreed with, it shows that they overwhelmingly support policies that sit to the left of where Labour were campaigning except for immigration and welfare.
6. "For all the talk of "austerity", how keenly is this really being felt in the country at large when we're now seeing real wage increases and low unemployment?" Maybe not amongst the home-owning people who vote it isn't, which illustrates that the problem is that the millions of people who are suffering, and have suffered over the past five years, are those who are denied a platform.
Kind of agree on the social media thing - I don't understand how people can be shocked that there are huge swathes of the population who aren't that politically engaged and who are quite happy in their own little world. It's always been the case and frankly, it's always been the case that in order to appeal to them you have to appeal to their basest instincts. Thatcher got it, selling the entrepreneurial myth and giving away council homes, and since then, that common good consensus has disappeared.
I fundamentally disagree that the Tories won this election from the centre-ground - they're further to the right of any of Thatcher's campaigns, but they have managed to control the economic narrative that casts them as responsible and Labour as not. At the end of the day, the economy is everything, and the perception is still there that Labour caused the global financial crash (they didn't), it wouldn't have happened under the Conservatives (it would - to a much greater degree), and that the Tories are sorting out the mess that they inherited (they're not).
I think overturning that narrative will take this term to happen, as we start to see the effects of their policies. It can take a decade for perceptions to shift - that's how long it took for people to forget the economic calamities committed under the last Tory government and the appalling state of public services and infrastructure in the mid-90s and contemplate voting for them in enough numbers for them to be part of government.
I think people forget how radical Blair was - he fucked up in continuing the Tories' PFI and followed Bush into war in Iraq, but he and Brown promised, and delivered, massive investment in public services that had been run into the ground in the preceding 18 years. The public saw the state of schools, hospitals and public transport and agreed that the situation couldn't continue in this way. They also bought into the socially progressive side of his pitch - no governments have done more for equality legislation than those under Blair.
I think you're right about Jarvis - not necessarily because of the direction in which he might take the party, but because it seems like leaders of the Labour party need to be palatable to the instincts of swing voters and newspapers to stand a chance of becoming prime minister. Having a white, male, ex-services party leader would close down many of the lines of attack and eliminate a lot of the barriers to appeal that Labour leaders are afflicted by.
It's disappointing that a notionally progressive party has to pick the least progressive leader in order for it to achieve power, but that still seems to be the case in the UK at the moment.
Do any One Nation Tory MPs remain in positions of power? You've seen Cameron and Osborne pushing the English nationalist angle hugely in this campaign, while the likes of Ken Clarke and Dominic Grieve have been sidelined. I still think Osborne sees regional devolution as a tool for freeing London and the South East from its funding obligations to the rest of the country.
Jarvis's voting record has hardly been all that centre.
(I was specifically not talking about the policy direction in which he might take the party)
i.e. Male, white, ex-services. Nothing radical there, nothing to make the swing voters feel like they're on the wrong side of history.
Is very healthy compared with other G7 countries, or the Eurozone at large.
I realise you've made a lot of points there which I will try and respond to at some point but I need to have some dinner...
The UK economy has been primed to peak in Q1 2015.
Debt has been shifted onto individuals, the service sector is over-dominating again, construction is stagnating, productivity has fallen through the floor, shares are overvalued, house prices have been artificially inflated, PPI payments have dried up, investment is low, and the government is pledging to tighten fiscal policy and welfare (removing money from its most useful location - at the bottom of the economy).
The above, coupled with interest rates still being held low, means that the UK is now less able to cope with a global financial slowdown or contraction than it was in 2008, or even 2010.
it's not as if Labour's manifesto bore the slightest resemblance to what people on twitter care about. Feel like decrying it is just triumphalism and pretty shallow as political analysis.
as assuming every non evil Tory voter was duped
but I don't think many people think that. The main explanation I've seen (in this thread and elsewhere) was that Labour failed to challenge the Tory narrative. The Tory argument was that the economy was safe with them, and the Labour counter-argument was that...er...the economy was safe with them as well. If you voted Tory (or maybe Lib Dem) it's hard to see how that would convince you to switch.
PS Tories are cunts though
Labour have allowed the Tories to set the narrative, and tried to argue everything on their terms. We're into austerity, just not as much! We'll be mean to immigrants and Scotsmen too!
It's made them look muddled and utterly spineless, and the one hope I have from this election is that their next leader realises that, and puts the ammunition of five more years of brutal right wing politics to good use.
Especially on the economy. The majority of the electorate don't `drill down` into this level of analysis sadly. They go on much simpler instincts - which by the way, no-one should decry as ignorant or selfish, which is what the left generally seem obsessed with doing. You can't go on a rampage against an electorate just because it didn't deliver the result you wanted (not that you were doing that, of course).
Blair sums things up pretty well (and gracefully too) in his Observer article today: http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/09/tony-blair-what-labour-must-do-next-election-ed-miliband . Think this bit in particular nails it:
`we were proud in 1997 to put forward the case for Britain’s first minimum wage. But we could never have won an election on it unless set within a broader framework. The same is true with zero-hours contracts`
Miliband's flaw is that he put traditional left-wing policy arguments at the centre of his messaging and fought from that position. History has told us that this doesn't work. Works for people like me, sure, but it doesn't connect with the nation. The opinion polls up till 10pm Thursday suggested that, perhaps, this time, it actually would. They were wrong, and so were we.
The election was there in black and white all along. In the answers to the `Who do you trust on the economy?` and `Who will make the best Prime Minister?` questions. Miliband COULD have actually won on these y'know. If he'd concentrated from the start on the first question (instead of using it as an ideological petri dish), and been as good in the preceding 4 years as he had been during his campaign on the second. His central argument that the electorate had shifted to the left since the financial crisis seemed correct up until polling day. But there's a reason Lynton Crosby drilled rigid discipline into the Tories on `strong economy` and `strong leadership`. That's the shit that was always going to work.
Think it's a bit futile myself pointing out how right-wing the Tories actually are. The centre-ground is always in flux. The centre-ground in this election was largely built around one where people wanted to feel safe in terms of the economy. And the Tories appealed to this more than Labour. Miliband's messaging scared them. He talked too much of radically upending the current capitalist settlement we have in the face of a `steady as she goes` electorate. It was never going to work and I am still sidelined as to how wrong I've been calling this for a very long time. Blinded by genuine admiration for what Miliband was trying to do, in a context, and with messaging, in which it was never going to work.
Still, the journey continues.
it'd be a serious repositioning, with a character that could actually be significantly far left without feeling like he is. Best bet for Labour in aeons.
is if Carswell heads up UKIP.
He'll almost definitely prune out the wackos and bigots immediately, and when you do that.... you've got one of the only parties on the playing field trying to talk about leaving Europe without secretly wanting to stay in.
That's a sentiment that can really, really win votes, especially if he can take enough of a sharp turn on his team to very publically remove any perceived extremists or 'joke' candidates.
If he achieves that it'll be a lot more than 4m voters heading for UKIP. If Farage comes back they'll plateau or die.
they'll just go back to voting for the BNP, and Carswell won't be able to cultivate an 'everybloke' appeal in the same way Farage did.
The worst thing for UKIP is the current situation - a Tory party with a slim enough majority that the eurosceptic wing have the whip hand, and a slim enough majority that the Conservatives and their media know could evaporate if UKIP continue to poll as they did.
The EU referendum will have enough people wanting to vote to stay in the EU - you won't get a mid-term anti-government swing this time, especially if, as rumoured, IDS will be the figurehead of the Brexit campaign. That, combined with the above, will kill off UKIP within a term.
that will get more than a handful of votes. End of.
Carswell doesn't need an everyman appeal if the Tory party don't present a strong enough support of wanting to leave Europe.
4,000,000 people voted for UKIP. To assume they're mainly ex BNP is insanity.
but yeah. i don't think there's anywhere else for the voters to go anymore.
I think UKIP as the most right leaning party are naturally going to attract their share of bigots and racists. The BNP are over as a political force and therefore UKIP have no "protection" on their right flank from some seriously horrible individuals joining.
Secondly, I think if Farage wants to come back, he can point to the fact that under him UKIP have won 12% of the vote in a general election and that he's still going to be UKIP's best media performer/public figure. I think Carswell would find it tough to defeat Farage in a UKIP leadership election. I think Carswell might try and come back to the Tories at some point (possibly).
carswell would try and prune them from his senior team and from the MP's standing.
I *hope* Farage back because I think it'll stop growth.
which would be funny for a ukip contest
Labour also have new hope in that the battleground can shift to fighting for those on zero hour too scared to tell their employer to fuck off and with no union to fall back on. The party needs a bit of a step back to accommodate the modern voter in the *workforce* as opposed to the modern voter on a Facebook wall or socialists wanting serious change all at once. Labour could be cutting edge educational. we need more co-operative micro-unions, more community interest companies, more trusts there's so much they could bring to the mix that's light years ahead.
create climates where businesses employing zero hours will lose their workforce from being outbid. Fuck yeah.
put this bully on ice
fight on policies that rather than remove zero hours jobs - which those desperate for work wont want to happen - weight them to give more power to the worker, forcing to keep businesses paying well for the privilege of increased workforce.
What kind of powers do you mean?
Labour still wouldn't have won if all those SNP seats were Labour, but there were probably weirdo voters choosing Tory over Labour cos they were terrified of a Labour/SNP government
What was the fucking point of voting SNP
Er, this has gotten a bit long for mobile, just shout if anyone's being terrible.
Ps there's pretty close to a picture of a fanny on the front page. Has esa just gone full ham
is mostly pretty boring ('we weren't pro-business enough') but does at least include some specifics on political reform and stuff
forgot Chelsea won the league as well :(
ridiculous. if the argument is that you can only rule with over 50% of the vote, then every government since 1931 is illegitimate. that's just pure sore losership. people need to accept this result and work out how to fight it effectively.
How is that not remarkably callous?
I would say I hold political views that are moderately right of centre. I am liberal on a wide variety of social issues (civil liberties/surveillance state/immigration/abortion/drug legalisation). I hold pro free market economic views. I wish for our country to remain in the EU - freedom of movement and a mixing of our cultures is a beautiful thing.
I am not a psychopath, I hold views broadly in line with many other Britons. I believe in personal responsibility and in a society where those who wish to pull themselves up by their bootstraps are rewarded.
I don't wish to make vast generalisations, but the above two comments do show how far to the left DiS is politically compared to the country at large. When people spend a lot of time on internet forums, reading political media that reflects and re-inforces their views, you end up with comments like the above.
On Fidel's comment that I am a wind-up merchant; quite possibly. Am I intellectually confident and dedicated enough to win hundreds of arguments on here on my own versus loads of people who hold opposite views? No I'm not. What would be the point though? What's the point of spending hours on an internet forum each day winning political arguments - better to go out into the real world beyond my keyboard and do that.
which are being responded to by a fair few in an `evil Tory scum lol` manner.
If those on the Left wonder why we keep on losing elections we could/should be winning - there's a part of your answer.
wouldn't couch my thoughts using language such as `aggregate demand` when knowing what the human cost of what's meant by it is.
But, no, it isn't `remarkably callous`. Don't get me wrong I think there is, and has been, remarkable callousness from the Conservative party in a number of their policy decisions since 2010. But is a perfectly reasonable line of thought to say `look, we need to get public spending/debt in order to shield us from future economy misery which benefits absolutely no-one`.
Plenty of fair lines for disagreement with a) that and b) the implementation of that but saying it's `remarkably callous` isn't one of them in my view.
He's not CG, he just has different opinions from the DiS Majority.
but given that my main impression of you is "weird internet guy with huge hateboner for islam" - I hope so!
that would suggest Islamophobia?
what a time to be alive
Brutal but I certainly know a lot of people who shared this sentiment and therefore voted anything but red.
Sort of the weirdest rock and hard place. For some who take an interest they weren't different enough to be an alternative while the press helped people to believe they were radical enough to steer clear of them. Damned either truth
Thompson arguing the split between "Red UKIP" and "Blue UKIP" effectively prevents them from having a cohesive set of policies and vision to advance much further.
I suppose also Paul Nuttall vs Suzanne Jones for a UKIP leadership contest would be a battle between those wings of the party.
I imagine you'll see people voting very strongly Labour or Tory only at the next election because both sides will be trying to avoid the other winning so badly.
"Recognising that we cannot deny that Labour lost the fight about the future helps us be aware of the centrality of our arguments to our success."
u wot m8
Got absolutely nothing from that piece
as an analogy for stuff any more. I'm calling an end to it.
But have some professional experience of her being really rather lightweight. I think that article shows it.
Considering Michael Gove is sociopathic with a longing for infamy I need to know how worried I should be
Can someone get Mandelson off the guardian homepage please? The man is a cunt.
and just thought you were still on-brand, tbh.
but yesterday pretty much sorted that out bd
I'd completely forgotten about Mandelson. And then there he was with that creepy serial killer smile and voice like the distant screams of a thousand children. Fucks sake.
Cheap AND you won't get haunted by dead Iraqis!
is wrong and the final result.
remember when you said yorkshire should become independent if it wanted to get rid of the tories?
i think it's important to recognise that wza has stupid views. Don't think the idea that labour is to the left of the snp is particularly fringe or wacky at all tbh
p.s. i'm also banning umlaut_ampersand from indirecting me, since he seems literally incapable of curtailing his obsession on his own steam.
think it's alright to stand up for myself basically
just chill out, please.
We all say daft things, we all get ribbed about them, we all shake hands at the end of the day and merrily go home.
that it's like performance art, or something.
according to Ipsos Mori - though i'm not sure pollsters are a source to be trusted right now...
The Conservatives won because of
a) LIB - CON swing which absolutely no-one in their right mind would have expected let alone detected
b) UKIP votes reducing LAB more than CON in key seats.
Ergo, the `left-wing` LIB voters didn't not show up, they voted CON. And about 5x as many `left-wing` voters voted Green instead of LAB.
i thought, admittedly haven't looked into this too much, that con votes held fairly steady since 2010, but lib support dropped off a cliff and split between lib, lab, and green, so any lib seats with a strong tory presence went blue.
so less lib going over to cons, just their vote splitting enough to let in the tories
Given the number of parties involved now, the churn between them is likely to be very complex - Labour probably lost significant numbers of voters to UKIP, the SNP, Greens and probably the Tories too, while picking them from the Tories and Lib Dems. All in me I think talking about 2 way swing is going to go the way of the dodo in the not too distant future.
b) It's... pretty correct, no?
There's been an unnecessary (and not useful) amount of anger from a portion of "the left" and equally a certain amount of being "bad winners" from a reasonable portion of "the right" - as ever, that article fails to show the nuance that would actually help people stop pitting themselves directly against each other - it's largely just pointing at one group as being worse.
And lest we forget the traits of bad `Tory` losers who threaten to leave the country etc. if the other side gets in.
But yes you're right. Although Laurie Penny's tweeting over the weekend did send me a tad over the edge.
So much idiocy I'm bound to miss the odd bit.
Twitter's opinion - resoundingly not relevant.
political leaning of the person who wrote it that I'm referring to.
b) referring to 'The Left' as some sort of collective entity with one particular set of aims.
appears to stem from loyalty her local MP which she actually apologizes for in the article, I don't think this is necessarily problematic but I'd question whether she would have voted the same way if she was living somewhere else.
And yeah fair points. Telegraph's gonna Telegraph and generalisers gonna generalise.
on the so-called 'shy Tories'.
"Most people in this country — and particularly those willing to vote for a centre-right prime minister — aren’t that bothered about politics. They are at the office. They have a job.
These people know what they think but they don’t particularly want to advertise it. It’s not really anyone else’s business. They’d like people to share their views but they aren’t going to spend a lot of time persuading others. These aren’t shy people...but they don’t have much time for people who sound off. They make the world a better place for themselves, for their families, for their communities and they expect that from others. They admire — quietly — those who make something of themselves. They despair — quietly — of those who expect to take without contributing.
They don’t think that talking loudly about equality is the same as being kind. Caring for the vulnerable is a practical not a theoretical issue. They are in touch with the modern world but don’t feel they need to wear a badge saying so. They listen carefully to business leaders without thinking them saints or geniuses."
I miss out on a lot of quality commentary owing to my refusal to pay in any shape or form for The Times but... c'est la vie.
known as "shy Tories" - which would more accurately be called "people ashamed to admit voting Tory".
Pretty sure polling answers count the same if they're quiet or loud.
Finkelstein's point isn't that they're 'shy' (or 'ashamed' in your words), it's that they just don't feel the need or compulsion to talk about it. They're two different things. And I think he's right on that.
It's basically summed up in this line: "They ['shy Tories'] don’t think that talking loudly about equality is the same as being kind."
...not with regards to the semantics of the word `shy` but the fact that we have a growing body of evidence to show that whatever you want to call these people, their votes break for the Conservative Party.
But he's right to identify these people aren't necessarily `Tories` because they aren't tribal or ritualistic in their voting behaviour.
while completely ignoring the actual phenomenon of Shy Tories.
Great work Finkelstein!
Or at least trying to.
It's like writing an article on mushroom clouds by explaining what mushrooms are and what clouds are.
then how on earth do we ascribe personality traits and beliefs to them?
but perhaps CG would be kind enough to post the whole article (currently behind the Times paywall) so we can all judge it a bit more accurately.
to say that people who aren't interested in politics and aren't interested in looking out for people beyond their circle of family and friends tend to end up voting Tory, is it?
Even without the hollow 'business leaders' phrase.
The penultimate line is probably back to front (cf oblivious mums and wankers obsessing loudly about the iPad they're getting someone for Christmas, etc).
Apart from that, though, it's not far off getting somewhere.
These people exist. Perhaps, rather than "shy", they ought to be (ungenerously) labelled 'insular'. He's basically just describing suburban and rural British(/English/C of E) life, isn't he?
imaperv (I think it was) picked up on it the other day, but it's worth dwelling on just how much of a difference there is between that suburban/rural life and city/large town life in the UK 2015.
seems to be just people duplicating the other politics threads that have been going on
where people say how stupid people were to base their notions of what was going to happen on their social circle, or twitter, because those things are not representative, and then go on to tell us what real people are *actually* like, based on, dunno, spoke to a bloke?
on how Kevin Pietersen has won "the battle in the court of public opinion" (topical election reference).
Although the evidence was his Twitter support from Gary Lineker, Will Carling, Andrew Flintoff, Michael Vaughan and Piers Morgan - great poll sample! - so I guess they're still learning.