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What's a forecast borrowing surplus, does that mean the UK govt will start lending?
if there's leaves on the trees, autumn is be, but if they're all on the floor, be it winter 'til it thaws.
that doesn't seem very prudent
...not that anyone will ever notice.
spot on, as far as i can tell
But really not very good at understanding it.
Who does a good breakdown?
Like Labour were suggesting at the last election?
surprised they paid VAT to begin with.
Sounds like a classic bit of manipulation that. Any accountants able to confirm?
plus i doubt it's going to amount to much is it, can't imagine many hospices made booming profits anyway.
In the same passage he mentioned lifeboats too (i think), how on earth were they making a taxable profit?
I'll look into it later.
There's been a couple of op-eds recently about how he's mellowed over the course of this parliament and is now a bit softer and conscientious as opposed to the hardline Thatcherite who entered Number 11 4 years ago.
How Osborne has gotten away with handling the economy so, SO disastrously over the last 4 years is an absolute mystery. It's literally been a disaster. And yet polling still indicates heavy trust in him on the economy. Funny how these things work out.
it also helps that those who have been made to suffer during this parliament are those at the bottom with no voice, and the small number who have benefited are those able to set the agenda.
Re. your first point: have any of these op-eds pointed out that strangely enough, as the government have started to pursue slightly more Keynesian methods, the UK economy has started to recover on a more solid base?
Also - what are these more Keynesian methods that the government has supposedly been using? Until now Osborne has been keeping a rigid course on `reducing the deficit` (lol) through spending cuts as opposed to tax rises. Also, the annual increases in borrowing (pretty Keynesian truth be told but not exactly news) since Osborne took office haven't, well to my knowledge anyway, been used to support much other than the fact that tax revenues are on their arse because The Great British Jobs Miracle™ isn't actually yielding anyone who pays any tax.
So, yeah, bit unsure as to what these other Keynesian policies actually are. And, even so, I'd be wary of ascribing any simple cause and effect narrative to them in such a short space of time.
largely ones that were canned in 2010, and splashing cash around on government pet projects, like Free Schools (you wouldn't believe the amount of money flung at landowners and developers to secure sites for free schools and the funding thrown at converting them into suitable buildings - it's working out at double the cost/m2 that Building Schools For The Future were coming out at).
It's now pretty clear that the recovery that was already happening in 2010 was choked off by the cancelling of things like Building Schools for the Future when state investment was covering the collapse in private sector investment and construction, and that a double dip recession was only avoided because of PPI payments (effectively where money was injected directly into the bottom of the economy and spent, rather than into the banks at the top who used it to recapitalise) and people liquidising the returns on London house price inflation.
As for what happens after the election - well, we know that this government have built a recovery designed to collapse by next year, unless they drive up the minimum wage and tackle the housing crisis (neither of which they will do), and that most of the local government spending cuts have been back-loaded so that they don't take effect until after the election, so if anything, winning the next election is more of a poisoned chalice than it was in 2010.
In the next parliament you'll also start to see the social/lag indicators of underfunding starting to reverse the trends established in the 00s. Things like poverty rates, NHS bed-blocking, homelessness, an increased benefit bill and prison suicides have already seen an uptick, but you'll also start to see things like crime rates, teenage pregnancies, alcohol and drug consumption, car use, class sizes and workplace deaths increase as local social provision and equality legislation is eaten away at.
Not sure if you're limiting your analysis of `the recovery` to the construction sector there but... the recession and subsequent `recovery` is due to significantly more factors than a simple lack of governments spending money. Like the slumps/recessions in the Eurozone and the US for instance. Higher unemployment and the subsequent lack of consumer demand also. To name but 2 things. Or do you honestly think the macroeconomic whims of the last 5 years can be largely/solely attributable to the government's investment or lack of in building stuff (which you seem to be implying)?
But yes PPI + Quantitative Easing + House Price Boom have all stimulated demand which saved our double-dip arse that's for sure. Although I'm not sure at this point whether or not it would've mattered had it happened, politically. The key KPI for Osborne, and the key justification for Austerity, has been cutting The Deficit™. He's failed at this so laughably and without any real consternation it's actually borderline terrifying.
Either way, it's also terrifying looking back that Cameron and Osborne who don't have two ounces of economic sense between them were allowed to take the reins at one of the most critical economic junctures in history. Terrifying.
Also - highly recommend this book. Makes a dogmatically Keynesian response to Austerity but it's worth a read because of, and not in spite, of that http://ukcatalogue.oup.com/product/9780199828302.do
certainly in the broadsheets is more a kind of shoulder shrugging `There Is No Alternative` vibe more than anything. They may well be right. Think the next government might have to see more savage spending cuts than this one has enacted :/
2% - 250k
5% - 590k
etc from midnight tonight
e.g. if you buy a house worth 260k, you pay 0% on the first 125k, 2% on the next 125k to 250k, then 5% on the remaining 10k
but more for all those above that.
what a world
A very welcome change
When we bought 4.5 years ago, we ended up paying £255,000. The house was up for £275,000 and we got £20,000 off. Originally we offered £250,000 but they wouldn't budge.
We realised that the house was a lot nicer than other houses just under £250k, and in the end offered an extra £5k and paid the stamp duty, which was £7650. At the time it was free under £250k for first time buyers.
Under the new rules it would have only been £2750.
I don't regret it though, as there is no way I could afford to buy the same house nowadays, as prices have gone crazy.
by the time you get to £1196k your duty has doubled, trebled by £1692k, but back down to just over double for individuals buying at £2,000,001
it's cheaper for everyone under £939k(except £500k which is the same) it's almost double for £2000k, but only 10% fo £2001k
sellers can probably get a few k more for their house without buyers paying more in total, further propping up house prices and benefiting tory voting property owners
that's a decent move isnt it?
emailing George, he's never going to remember all these.
suprised as usually these things are baked in already (somehow). Banking sector down when it was up this morning.
Not really looked at the US, though so could be them rather than George
Based on my skimming of twitter anyway. Will need to digest properly later.
aren't just linked to the autumn statement- there's global service sector data (eurozone retail sales and US employment data0 being released today which will have a greater impact than a manifesto, the ocntents of which we've kind of known about/ suspected for weeks now.
I think any wrinkles will recover by end of the week (I hope *adjusts SIP rapidly*)
if you followed the uk banking sector, it had a blip during and immediately after the speech and is back where it was this morning.
but yes a speech here wouldn't really have any long term effects.
timing of us markets opening and the speech were bound to do something
I just think there are quite a few factors at work.
I never thought anything these fucks would do would get me cheering but the cocks have pulled it off... YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
no VAT on electric toothbrushes?
Migrants to lose unemployment benefits if they have "no prospect" of work after six weeks
where is CG? the Guardian have reported today that 'the coalition has been a modest success'.
are beginning to sink in: http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2014/12/04/osborne-is-planning-to-destroy-society-as-we-know-it-what-are-we-going-to-do-about-it/
Also worth pointing out that even the OBR has assumed that a cut in stamp duty inflates house prices up beyond what has supposedly been saved anyway:
I doubt Osborne has any intention at all of sticking to this budget's plans if the Tories are in power this time next year. It's pure politics above economics designed to try and make himself look more serious about deficit reduction than Labour.
Trouble is, until someone stands up and challenges the post credit-crunch assumption that eliminating the deficit should be the only priority for the government, he's going to keep getting away with this kind of budget. I doubt he ever actually intends to start running a surplus - he'd rather cut taxes instead - but so long as the argument's being fought on that premise he needs to claim he will to keep up the public perception that he's the only man to be trusted with the economy.