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isn't it likely that people are voting for *him* and not UKIP, essentially? i mean, i know he is UKIP now, but they aren't /that/ big a leap from the tories, whom his constituents were already voting for in a way?
At 2010 GE he had 53% of the vote (of a 64% turnout) and now he has 59% of the vote with a lower turn out.
i don't really know how this kind of thing works, but if there was an MP that was good in my mind and they were doing the right things for me, and he defected to a new party that similar political manifestos with a few differences, i'd consider still voting for them, right? no?
everyone's going to see how stupid i am :(
...which appears to have a large number of voters naturally sympathetic to hard right concerns. Not sure what the original UKIP candidate was polling before Carswell's defection, but it certainly wouldn't have been 50+%
He was a shoo-in, basically.
Essex has a big UKIP bent, MEPs and Local Councils are flush with them. They might win Southend and Basildon at next GE.
Is that Southend is a world apart from Clacton, even though you look at the both and see 'run down victorian seaside town'.
I can't see UKIP winning Southend, which is such a Tory fortress.
They took a massive chunk out of the labour vote last night in Heywood and Middleton which much more interesting and worrying, IMO.
so ignore my last point about the labour vote!
Normal service will resume in the General Election
(and variations of)
just tells you that some guy said it
Isn't it kind of a sarcastic thing people say when some dicks get voted in my other dicks? Like you voted in shit people who'll make things worst cos you have shit opinions? So you deserve it. Or something.
so, after every election or by-election
that brusma's girlfriend voted for.
Just a jokey counter to a bit of typical brusma high-horsery.
I'm one of the last people on here to criticise anyone for being a Tory and besides brusma's lady seems dead sound (or at least she did when she used to post with any regularity).
mixing Tango and European lager in the other thread though. You're very lucky.
That's great stuff. It wouldn't have occurred to me to try it, but I saw it on quite a few menus in Berlin. (They also offered lager and Coke, but that was a step too far even for me.)
so sad that someone is saying that in 2014. turns out foreigners aren't just stealing your jobs, they're gonna infect you with diseases that are just too expensive to treat and a drain on the health service. think it's one of the yuckiest ideas he's had.
He's become more sly with the immigration stuff, judging from his interview on the Today programme this morning, but at the same time slightly more calculating and evil.
As mentioned above, would like to imagine this is a flash in the pan, based on A) it being a by-election and B) it being a safe candidate being re-elected, albeit under a different banner.
At first I thought he might be getting it mixed up with ebola...
In the grand scheme of things HIV is not that expensive/difficult to treat and treatment/containment is remarkably successful these days.
If that's the argument Farage is making we'd be better off restricting UK citizenship to folk who've got high blood pressure, a family history of heart disease, diabetes, prostate cancer...
I mean, I could go on?
That's how they got fat. and we like the rich.
separate thing imho
This guy looks like he'd vote UKIP
of someone whose entire worldview is based on hatred and irrational fear of anything that isn't him. Just like Farage
His father is/was a pioneering HIV/AIDS researcher in Uganda.
all that yellow and purple ££££ stuff, looks so low-rent.
might vote for them if they sorted that out.
is hilarious. A bye-election win is equivalent to the Europa League Group Stage, super super small time.
giving them as much coverage as the Green party.
I can get behind that.
UKIP coming second with 11,000 votes up from 1,200. There'll be a lot of Tory MPs paying very close attention to that...
the heywood result is more troubling
Gains by fringe parties in by elections don't tell us much about electoral behaviour as a whole.
Wonder where Farage is going to stand in 2015. Ooh.
in my constituency.
I'm torn because I really hate both of them. Can they just battle to a bloody stalemate?
I want battleaxe or medieval mace
where Laura Sandys (Tory) is standing down at the next election.
1) When I used to argue on here that UKIP were the fourth party ahead of the Greens, the response would always be "but they haven't even got an MP!". Well, now they do, so that's that settled. They may even get a second in Rochester in a couple of weeks.
2) This line will/has shifted to "well, let's hope they get as much press coverage as the Greens/Respect do (ie very little)." I'm not sure the disparity in the number of other elected party representatives beyond MPs (Councillors/MEPs etc) justifies this.
3) The significant Clacton victory may have been down to a personal Carswell vote to some degree, but not in Heywood. That was a pure UKIP vote, and in a Labour heartland no less. The fact that UKIP came so very, very close, means the old line about all Kippers being disaffected Tories doesn't really hold any water.
4) I can't for the life of me understand why the three main parties (and lefties in general) are refusing to acknowledge or accept the rise of UKIP. It just seems to be electoral suicide. Every time UKIP take a step forward, it's always dismissed and mocked and laughed at, but UKIP just ignore it and keep plowing on to bigger and bigger victories. "They're fruitcakes and loonies, they've only got a couple of crazy fringe councillors"... "They're all racist, they've only got some councillors and a few MEPs"... "Ok, ok, they've go quite a few coouncillors and top the polls for MEPs, but they don't have any MPs"... "Alright, they've got loads of councillors, the most MEPs and an MP, but it's only *one* MP"... you get the idea. The more they get vilified and laughed at - and the more smug and self-satisfied the UKIP opposition become - the more success they have, and the more members and money they get (the recent £1m donation is evidence of that). I'm not suggesting they're going to be in government any time soon, but the pattern is pretty clear. It won't happen overnight, but it'll be death by a thousand cuts, and by then it'll be too late.
But do keep on pretending it's all been 'LOL UKIP are so funny!'
The rise of UKIP is following a logical (and well-deserved, to be fair) trajectory. There's a limit to their appeal though. And that's mainly because UKIP basically = Nigel Farage. There's nothing else really there without him.
Fully accepting that UKIP's ideological fulcrum is one shared by large swathes of the country, though. And it's important to take them seriously as a result.
"And that's mainly because UKIP basically = Nigel Farage. There's nothing else really there without him."
They're showing that they have a broad based if somewhat vague appeal. Founded on unpleasantness and bigotry, but existent nonethless. They're tapping into that silent significant minority of people who think that Britain should be British and shun the outside world.
despite the fact that she was a conservative.
the view that 'UKIP=Farage' is also incredibly complacent, and shows that UKIP's opposition can't see beyond the end of this week.
They now have another 'superstar' in Carswell who is not only electorally successful but also very popular with the party's grassroots (strangely, given he's pretty pro-immigration on the whole, or at least not anti, and tells his constituents this quite openly).
They've got a growing youth wing which could turn up any number of 'new Nigels', and that's before any other big name MPs defect (i'm not saying this will happen, but it's possible).
They exist for a wide variety of reasons. But significantly because there's a large number of disillusioned people who think that the current Conservative party are not reflective of true Conservatism. They see UKIP as the truest holders of Conservative values in the UK.
But... a lot of this is solely articulated by Farage currently. It takes a special gift to take the `sort of things` that UKIP stands for and turns them into articulate musings that people can trust. Obviously if more folk within UKIP arrive with the ability to do this (as CG is saying just there) then I'll possibly be proved wrong.
Another reason why I don't predict large, long-term UKIP success is that post-Cameron the Tory party is going to inevitably shift rightwards which will slow UKIP's momentum and reduce defectors. A Boris leadership will hit UKIP very hard. Osborne will position himself to the right in order to make inroads into UKIP's popular support. Javid will be the `next Thatcher` and win back hard right support. Not sure what'll happen if it's May but stance on immigration/law and order is likely to be music to UKIP's ears.
We'll see though. We'll see.
(and not just 'cause one of my old lecturers wrote it)
because it was the conservative vote that was cannablised, not the labour vote.
labour went down by around 6.5k and the tories by 9.4k and the UKIP went up by 10k.
And is representative of *exactly* what i'm talking about.
Labour's share went up (by 0.8 per cent!), yet they lost over 6,500 votes/voters - all to UKIP.
The Tories and Lib Dems lost almost 20,000 votes between them.
That accounts for the 6500 fewer votes.
As for 2) you've got this the wrong way round - it's more that the amount of coverage UKIP gets has shown up how little coverage the Green Party have got.
3) UKIP lost the Heywood vote.
8 months before a General Election? Might as well vote in anyone, you get another go after Easter.
but they've got a larger share of the votes than UKIP had last time out. maybe if they had more adverts on the BBC then they might be able to perform the magic that UKIP have performed. i mean i don't agree with this, but i am busy trying to waste my time whilst i wait for an export to arrive.
everyone get's too decided on Heywood
The Tory vote was decimated and went to Ukip or Lib dems (???) percetage wise, Labour had the same winning percentage as last time.
you can't do that sort of analysis of a by-election, it's just to marginal and unrepresentative of voting intention.
what it does show is that people are at least considering voting ukip in the general election. the fact is UKIP are now more likely to win seats in the north because it is just so close. they'll be taking votes off labour and the tories (and from non-voters). and it now looks possible that they're going to take a seat in the north (probably out of rotherham, grimsby or dudley).
more importantly though, there are critical seats that labour will lose to the tories because of UKIP (a lot of them in the midlands). more of them than the other way around. and places that labour should really have been winning in 2010 like carlisle are at risk. so today is bad news for anyone who doesnt want a tory government next year.
like that even 2% of UKIP voters would be like "yeah UKIP is a racist party, what of it?"
Followed by a lot of projected conclusions
labour getting "the same winning percentage as last time" in one constituency in a by-election isn't useful for predicting the general election. what i posted about is based on actual research. from page 20 onwards:
ukip getting a good result in heywood and middleton only gives us very broad and general indications. talking about specific numbers (and even going down to below percentage points) is almost meaningless.
"there are critical seats that labour will lose to the tories because of UKIP (a lot of them in the midlands). more of them than the other way around."
I can only see that being true if the press really pushes the Tory line of 'a vote for UKIP is a vote for Labour' and it sticks.
there's a few super close marginals that labour need to take off the lib dems too (bradford east, norwish south, manc withington) and ukip are making it a lot harder (although, knowing the constituency very well, i will be very shocked if labour dont win manchester withington).
Yeah we'll protest for change by voting the same guy in. Oh but it's the party we're vootng for. It's time to give privately educated ex-Tory free market toffs a chance in government, that will show the establishment!
Know any students in sheffield? make sure they vote non-lib dem next year cheers
unlike the last GE.
There's a big uni vote in his constituency, but also a massive Fulwood/posh baby-boomers in huge houses demographic who probably aren't ready for UKIP yet.
reckon if the students are bothered enough they could do it.
i like the sound of this couple:
Munching a bag of chips in Crookes in Sheffield on Tuesday, Marlene Wall said she regretted voting for Nick Clegg. "We went for him last time, but never again," said the 77-year-old. "He's more them than us now." Them? "The Tories," offered Mike Bradley, her partner, between mouthfuls. "He's latched on to them, thinks he's the big 'I am'," said Wall, who predicted a hitherto absent Ukip surge in the deputy prime minister's parliamentary seat. "Ukip's what we want now, isn't it? Fewer people being let into the country."
Closes at something daft like half 7 as well.
Have to go to Commonside now*
*6 years ago
Dreadful post, great chippie.