Labour's support is draining away, according to a Guardian/ICM poll which records the first Conservative lead in over two years and gives Ed Miliband's party its smallest share of the vote for four years.
The Tories are on 33% in the monthly state of the parties poll, up a single point and two points ahead of Labour, which has sunk by six points since April. The poll will add to Labour nerves a week and a half before European and local elections, and less than a year before the general election.
Flush with publicity of all kinds before the European ballot, Nigel Farage's Ukip climbs four points to 15%. The Liberal Democrats edge up one to 13%. The ICM finding is surprising because although polling averages have pointed towards a narrowing gap between the two main parties, internet polls for the Sunday papers pointed to continuing Labour leads of between four and seven points.