Your are viewing a read-only archive of the old DiS boards. Please hit the Community button above to engage with the DiS !
More than 5.
He also posted a speech from Thatcher about the weakness of European countries on Facebook earlier with the word *Wonderful* as it's only accompaniment and claimed that the BBC is over-stating the ill feeling towards her in the name of balance.
He's younger than me, it's depressing.
He's also a City fan.
Well... maybe a few old relatives. Nobody under 60 and nobody who lives in Scotland anyway.
I knew a couple of others but they were utter cunts generally, so I avoided them. I think I may have a few in my family...
I'd say 4ish
you wouldn't think it, he goes out and gets mashed every weekend on pills. Apart from that, just my parents.
You can never really 'know' a Tory. Whatever evil, sneaky shit they've all got going on underneath their energy masks is unknowable.
Probably loads, don't really care though.
my girlfriends old housemate in 1st years was a massive tory and tried to convert her whole flat and would put up pictures of Thatcher and stuff on the pin board. He was a bit of a monster.
Seen on facebook that all the bimbo popular kids from school are no conservative. Bizarre.
My stepfather, who's in his 70s. spent his whole life on the left, CND marches, anti-apartheid etc but buys The Daily Mail every day and you can tell he's genuinely influenced by it when he rants from time to time. But he also buys The Observer, can't get my head round it.
we don't have Tories where I live
People who are members of/people who repeatedly espose the values of The Conservative Party or people who have been known to vote Conservative in the past?
Substantial difference. If the former - probably none. If the latter - probably dozens.
Especially given the 'shy Tory' effect.
but voted tory. The dicks.
don't you know cat_race?
There are actually people who don't engage in blinkered political tribalism and vote according to their assessment of the prospective political parties at each general election, and attribute their votes accordingly!
or understand the issues and then just vote with whoever they think will lower their taxes.
...but, conversely, there are people who don't take an interest in politics or understand the issues and just vote with whoever they think will give rich people a bit of a shinning.
There's ill-information and uninformed voting on all sides of the political spectrum - albeit, more heavily weighted towards the prejudices of the right-wing press. Different issue though ennit.
hence why pollsters have to factor in the Shy Tory effect.
actually have to introduce a "Shy Tory" weighting when totting up their opinion polls?
*After the 1992 election, most opinion pollsters altered their methodology to try to correct for this observed behaviour of the electorate. The methods varied for different companies. Some, including Populus, YouGov and ICM Research, have adopted the tactic of asking their interviewees how they had voted at the previous election, and then assumed that they would vote that way again at a discounted rate. Others weighted their panel so that their past vote was exactly in line with the actual result of the election. For a time, opinion poll results were published both for unadjusted and adjusted methods. Polling companies have found that telephone and personal interviews are more likely to generate a shy response than automated calling or internet polls.*
Doesn't mention Tory voting anywhere in there though - it just mentions previous voting behaviour, of non-specific denomination, which you would assume would be weighted as a matter of course/quantitative robustness. Unless I'm missing something, or an introduction to that has been missed off...
So that answers my questions. Cheers.
There is a weighting to be added for whichever party is in power, but in addition to that, there is a further shy-Tory factor.
It's similar, but not the same as the Bradley effect in the US.
I don't understand how it links to what you were saying though.
You appeared to be suggesting that, as a result of disproportionate ill-information and uninformed voting on the right - the Shy Tory effect has to be taken into account.
I'm not getting that. It says to me, simply, that there is a disproportionate discrepancy between the polled voting intentions and the actual voting results on the right. Which is a different thing, is it not?
who didn't really take an interest in politics at all, or any of the issues, or even who disparaged the Tories in public, and who wouldn't say that they would vote Tory, and then voted Conservative anyway - these are Shy Tories.
You assumed that he was talking about people who rationally weighed up all the policies and then voted Conservative, but wouldn't identify themselves as Tories. If they make the decision late enough (which most floating voters do - a fair chunk of them only actually make their mind up when they are actually in the polling booth) then these are also picked up in the shy-Tory factoring.
Anyway - I see the two phenomena as distinct, myself.
There's also the thing about what question is actually asked. For example, at the moment Labour are leading opinion polls based on the question "Who do you want to win the next General Election". However, they are behind the Conservatives on other questions such as "Who do you trust on the running of the economy" and "Which leader do you prefer - Miliband or Cameron". The latter two questions mean that the opinions stated in the first are not that clear cut...
MORI: How would you vote if there were a General Election held tomorrow? Would you vote Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat or for some other party
ICM: If there were to be a general election tomorrow which party do you think you would vote for? Conservative/Labour/Liberal Democrat/Other?
YouGov: If there were a general election tomorrow, which party would you vote for? Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, Scottish Nationalist/Plaid cymru, some other party, would not vote, don’t know
Populus: If the general election was tomorrow, which party would you vote for? Would it be [rotate order] Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, or another party – or would you not vote at all?
Communicate Research: If there were a general election tomorrow, would you vote Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat or some other party?
NOP: If you do vote in the next general election, which party will you vote for – Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, or some other party?
That's asking something very different to "Who do you *want to win*..."
The "shy Tory" effect appears to exist less in internet based polls than those that take place as live interviews, and isn't exclusive to the Tory party - Internet polsters keep a record of how people said they voted on the day of the last election to keep a record for future use; when asked again, there's an element of Lib Dem voters who now claim to have voted for another party in 2010, whether because they're embarrassed to have done so given events since then or genuine false recall.
There's some good stuff on the Shy Tory effect and other political weighting (as ever) on UKPollingReport.
sorry for spurring you into having to clarify - I lazily worded my example questions on account of having to run into a meeting. But thanks all the same for presenting them. My point was around that the single question "If there was a general election tomorrow..." doesn't tell the whole story, because other questions when placed alongside show a conflicted electorate on certain different things (all of which play a role in the voting booth).
But, sure, it isn't exclusive to the Tory party as I would have thought. My confusion is arising from marckee's conflation of the Shy Tory effect and assertions about ill-information and ignorance (my terms, admittedly) in voting behaviour. In my mind, they're two seperate things.
That doesn't apply to any of the people who I was talking about.
Here be floaters!
and dog walker turn up later, I'll ask them.
but, at least 2 or 3 of my generation. One of them is properly into it, like goes to conferences and stuff.
one of them is probably a bit more UKIP really, he's a strange lad in a lot of ways, very disconnected from the world
at least none that i know about, my old boss who i obv dont see anymore was a tory though, thats about it
I'm sure I know plenty, but not many particularly well. The only hugely politically motivated person I know is a housemate from university who thinks Boris is a legend and seems to be pretty much in bed with the Orange Book side of the Lib Dems (he's standing for them in the next set of County Council elections).
was the son of a Tory politician. Even he is anti-Tory.
pretty much ALL my colleagues are tories :/
Not sure if she was a Tory or not but definitely an investment banker along with her rugger-bugger husband.
I'm guessing she got fed up with all my sharing of posts from Republic and UK Uncut.
I'd like to pretend I wasn't bothered but I was briefly.
They're usually pretty secretive about their politics, unless they're Boat Race/Clapham/stockbroker types, but who the hell would want to know them?
A tiny minority of my relatives. I think there are 2 Daily Mail readers.
None of my friends I don't think, although there are probably some who don't care and could end up voting Tory at some point in their lives.
*people who spout right wing views
One works for a Tory MP. One is a Tory councillor. THEY ARE BOTH NICE PEOPLE.
People who vote Tory? Probably quite a few, especially where I grew up, and a fair whack of people I went to university with. And probably my dad, though we don't really talk politics and he's more an out and out cynic.
I know. I'm happy with this.
She also works for a gold-mining company. Personally I'm sceptical.
a gold mining lefty does sound pretty radical.
I'm from Surrey.
great bloke, actually.