Thread not appearing correctly? Click here to rebuild | Report this
- Primavera Sound 2013: the DiS preview
- Animal Collective - Monkey Been to Burntown
- Club 8 - Above the City
- The Focus Group - The Elektrik Karousel
- In Photos: Pigeon Detectives @ The Leadmill, Sheffield
- In Photos: Hadouken! @ Electric Ballroom, London
- DiS does Primavera 2013 - Who To See?
- armchair dancefloor 39: Mount Kimbie interview, Bobby Browser, Powell, Move D, Leon Vynehall...
Twitter
Facebook
Last.fm
SoundCloud
MySpace
Friendster
RSS
don't trust the sample size
We should probably have a bigger referendum.
Get the whole of Argentina involved too...
What about eveyone into UK too?
Maybe we should have a global referendum
It's the only way to ensure a statistically significant sample size.
Lets have a global referendum but with facebook likes
that'll save money
Was watching the 'celebrations' on the news this morning
Thank fuck those bunch of nutters live 7,000 miles away...
But harsh.
Isn't there a falklander who posts on here? Their posts were really interesting in the last thread on this.
yeah, absolutely
i don't think there is anything wrong with celebrating such a thing.
nah
three people voted the other way
Trolling worthy of CG
I'd like to think that at least one of them is horrified about it
and misread the ballot sheet.
Probably just someone up to a bit of horseplay
I doubt there is much else to do for fun in the Falklands...
Smuggle a penguin in to vote?
WELL MAYBE THEY SHOULDNT BE LIVING THERE!
I guess Argentina should fuck off wanting it back then
they'll be gutted
They were convinced everyone there was on board
Doubt it will change anything.
The vote has no legal standing.
Legal schmegal
They have no mandate to demand it back if the population are 100% (99.8%) against it.
It's like us holing onto Scotland or the Rock of Gibralter after they voted unitely against UK rule.
It makes things fucking awkward.
why's that captain?
no idea
but that's Argentina's take on it.
Ah fair enough.
This thread is positively dripping with sarcasm
I approve.
how many people live there?
Just under 2000
not enough for this to mean anything
people caring about where they live.
Not a thing.
strange reply
You're saying the will of people who live in an isolated area
doesn't mean anything.
no, i'm saying there isn't enough of them to be certain
You're getting completely confused
If there is a group of people and 99.8% of them want something - no matter how small the group (within reason as 2 people this makes no sense) there is enough of them to be certain of what they want.
That is not under debate. It's very clear what they want. If you compare this % to say a % outcome in a UK wide election, then the stats become meaningless.
That's where you're confused.
I suppose its that thing where you'll moan about your town/country/school being shit
But if someone from another town/country/school slags it off you'll defend it to the hilt
Wait 1513 out of just over 2000 voted
and 99.8% said they want to be part of UK - and that doesn't count?!
2,000 just isn't a very large sample, statistically speaking
1,513 is even less.
but 1,513 also isn't 90% of 2,000. either way. too small to say i think
Out of just over 2000 people, I'd say those voting were the vast majority
of those eligible to vote.
That's 75% of the entire population. Probably more for actual voter turnout. That's amazing for any vote, ever. Of this mass turnout, only 3 people voted against?
And you're still saying it's too small?
I can't see a scenario in any election ever about anything where it could be bigger.
i don't think you see what i mean though, the population is too small for the sample to be significant
http://drownedinsound.com/community/boards/social/4426944#r7387705
Exactly
Of course it matters. You can't rule out what an entire electorate say because there's not that many of them.
Anyway, by the time you get into the hundreds, percentages are a fine indication of the result.
If you're looking at 3 people, then percentages aren't.
But we're looking at 1513 votes. The entire electorate.
you just tend to get a more reliable result from a bigger sample size, that's all i'm saying
and as I said ages ago, above a thousand and you get diminishing returns for reliability
http://drownedinsound.com/community/boards/social/4426944#r7387705
Statistically, you shouldn't have
a determinative say in your own life decisions because the sample size of one is statistically insignificant.
It's not a sample though
it's the entire electorate.
uh, yeah, also this
incidentally, a sample of 2000
when weighted properly gives an error rate of only +/- 3%
Actually, I'm wrong...
It's 2%, 1000 is 3%. More here... http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/4318
Was gonna post exactly that link.
OMG STOP TALKING TO CAT RACE
well
ipsos mori political monitors are done with just over a thousand people, and those are deemed pretty accurate at measuring a population of 65m+.
also I'm pretty sure you get diminishing bonuses going beyond a thousand?
This is a man who knows Excel
Listen to him when it comes to stats
My job is Excel
I shit him.
Yet in the opening post you claim 90% of the population voted.
Now Japes is saying there's a population of 2841 and only 1513 voted?
The electorate numbers less than 1700 though
so I assume that's what was meant.
2,000 is too small to MEAN anything though
that's my point
you're wrong
How can you be sure?
Your sample size of people ^thising you is less than double figures. You're making a mockery of your own argument here
AND one of them is Theo
I'm a sham
At least you're an honest sham
based on what i know about SNG variance, i'm not wrong
but it's not a sample
And thus by your logic, local democracy is meaningless.
i wouldn't say local democracy is meaningless
low turnouts are definitely a problem though. you can't really gauge public opinion properly based on low turn outs. like with the PCC elections
this exchange is truly some of your best work.
Hmmm.
That makes anything you say mean 1/2000th the importance even of that
it doesn't stop you spewing it out and then throwing a fit if someone says it's garbage
throwing a fit?
steady on
I assume you're trolling us, whiskas
but just in case you're not and are having a trans-ischemic attack or something then wait for it to pass and think about what you're saying.
It's not a sample - it's all of them. It's a little like suggesting that if one woman says no to sex you can disregard her view on the basis that there's not enough women in the sample group for it to count.
he is trolling you
he's done me, japes
I liked whiskas though
might start using that
Yes - I was told the population was just over 2000
and I said in my above post that the eleigilbe to vote was gonig to be less than this (it turns out it's 1700) so I can't see what I said wrong.
Admittedly, it was assumption, but the maths is still right.
1513 is 89% of 1700.
From what I've read this morning
the total population of the islands is around 2800, but that includes kids, the military and those who are effectively disenfranchised (less than 7 years residency). That accounts for the 1100 or so who aren't in the electorate
The electorate is 1672 to be completely accurate
so turnout is above 90%.
I like accuracy in my maths threads.
This is good stuff :)
lies upon lies
I didn't have the figure of 1700
I just made the assumption it'd be slightly less than 2000. All these figures posted here came after what I wrote.
It seems amazing there are so many who can't vote there.
I guess it's oil contractors or something. Unless they're really fecund down there.
cat_theo
2,841 (2012)
fix (the vote)
Wow
Cat_Race really trolled the fuck out of this thread. CG couldn’t get close to this in a politics thread nowadays.
...
http://drownedinsound.com/community/boards/social/4426848#r7386023
I feel so dirty.
there's nothing clever about it though
it's like going on to a bus and shitting yourself
and if anyone gags going 'lol! trolled!'
it's not that much like that
you're right
The shitting yourself stunt is less crushingly dull.
ok you do that then
All the times I've done this I've never thought of it as trolling.
I'm fucking king of the trolls!
If you do it in your own car it doesn't count.
Bollocks
think that's lunch
this wont be the end
of it, theres oil involved
well if there is enough oil there, then it will be down to. who can hold the island militarily
it has little to do with voting.
i guess argentina just has to bide its time, until the uk military capability has degraded to the effect that they could not hold the islands
That will never happen
sounds about right
also i like how argentina dismissed the vote results weeks before it had even take place as they knew what the outcome would be. I cant even remeber what excuse they used to dismiss the vote but I remember it being stupid
but the thing is
it ISN'T important to them what the outcome is, because they approach it from the position that the people voting have no right to be there.
Exactly
it's importance is in International Relations.
people who are born there
have no right to be there? that doesnt make sense, fair enough if we were talking about the original people who settled but that was time ago, people have settled there and been born there, its their home
I think you're missing Guntrip's point
i dont see how?
argentinas stance on it just seems stupid to me, i cant see the logic
if I invade your house
and my kids have a vote on whether they should stay, I'm sure you wouldn't really care what the outcome was. You'd just want your house back.
thats a stupid analogy
of the situation, that would only stand if say last week, british people settled there, they have been there for a long long time, argentinas time to do anything about it has long gone. back to your analogy though, it would only make sense if say 200 years back you and your kids invaded , i did fuck all to get my house back, never mentioned it for 200 years then suddenly decided i wanted it back even though generations of people had been born and lived in it
I agree
But that would be the argentine perspective.
but the simple comeback to that analagy is that
no one invaded argentinas house
I know, but as Japes says.
we're trying to explain why Argentina wouldn't care.
just trying to explain why Argentina won't give a fuck what the outcome of the vote is
why would Argentina care what generation of British people are living there if they don't recognise Britain's claim to it at all
Different generation, same country/occupying population.
(I don't give a fig about the Falklands, but it's a pretty straightforward argument, even if it is bollocks)
Yeah, I mean
the Argentine population's ancestors invaded South America centuries ago, guys.
It's not your house that was invaded though
It's your neighbour's house, from before you lived there (iirc)
according to that logic no one has any right to be anywhere
I agree that from a humanist point of view the people with the most rights in such disputes should be the people/families that might have lived there all their lives, possibly for generations......the proximity of that land to whatever is irrelevant.
It is not as if the current islanders or their forebears actually evicted any argentinians to gain the land....they did not, as far as we are all aware the falklands were uninhabited by humans and therefore no country has a claim to them.......however since there are some people on there that have lived there and their parents also.....then these people are the ones who have the most humanist right to decide their own destiney, if the law does not recognise that then it is wrong.....simples..............however what is right according to humanist principles is NOT the most important thing to almost all governments (including our own and argentina).
So it doesnt really matter what we think or even what the falklanders think (unless the UN gets some sort of proper backing to do the right thing in all cases)
Perhaps Argentina could win the a PR battle by convincing the falklanders to all want to leave by offering them all £1,000,000 to leave, that's only £2billion after all. And suggest that the oil extraction be carried out by a conglomerate of Argentine and British companies (Britains expertise in extracting oil from high seas being rather useful.......(this is not gulf of mexico drilling operation))
I wonder what the outcome would be if we held a similar vote here
we'll find out in 2014
Didn't realise they'd changed the format of the World Cup that much
The turnout would be similar, I reckon
About 1500 people that is, not 90%
Phixx
Well this thread didn't go as expected.
#colonialism
there now let's do it properly
I'm going to assume that the three who voted 'no' all look like the weasely little guy from Last Exit to Springfield
Good thread advert.
One of them is probably the guy who applied for Argentian citizenship a few years a go
The errors on that size is big enough to account for the other two.
:D
Aw, I hope they were nice to him in the pub afterwards
On a related note,
When I went to Argentina for a few weeks, I just couldn't get over how much of a huge issue this still is there. The guy from the council who gave us a lift everyday wore his Malvinas veterans badge, and actually had a Malvinas sign in the back of the van we were travelling in...
As said in the previous thread,
it's an issue that is only whipped up when desperate right-wing governments in both countries need it to be, and Argentina's had a fair few of those over the years. Fortunately for their government at the moment, we have one too, against which they can carry out their sabre-rattling.
We last had government with a leftist foreign policy in 1979.
Even you can't use this against the Coalition. Even you.
What?
Who do you think called the vote and has been reacting to the Argentinian taunts? Who's been pressing for (and getting) lots of jingoistic articles in the press over here? Who's really not trying to defuse the situation?
The non-partisan Government of the Falkland Islands.
to your first question about the vote.
hahaha
Do you really think they would ever do anything without the UK government giving them approval to do so? In this instance it's pretty well accepted that the UK government encouraged them to hold the vote in the first place.
So there shouldn't have been a vote?
It's pretty superfluous, other than winding up Argentina.
You'd have to be pretty dim to think that it would lay the matter to rest.
But it isn't is it?
It allows the UK Government to legitimise the Self-determination argument internationally.
They didn't need a referendum to do that.
And if they really wanted to legitimise the self-determination argument, they'd have made sure that it was UN-backed.
So you disagree with having a vote? Or you disagree with the timing?
Pre 2009 there were no taunts to react to, so well done Brown kept his mouth shut whilst no one was listening to him anyway. Interestingly Kirchner's husband (the previous president til 2007) didn't really *taunt* at all. Are you really saying that someone like Blair wouldn;t have used them if they existed? Really?
With due repect, I don;t know where they articles are *really* coming from, and either do you.
(Blair, whilst still in office saying the war was right, with no provocation to do so from the Argentinians:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2007/mar/23/foreignpolicy.uk)
How do you diffuse the current situation? Ignore the Argentinans everytime they say something silly? Maybe, but you're going to get asked the question by the press, and the current line is that it is up to the islanders, and we'll defend against territorial annexation. Which is what we'd say about Shetland, or Wales, or Manchester if the question was asked.
Exactly, and I was there in 2008, when it really wasn't an issue in this country
and that's why it took me aback- i'd expect it now.
2007 was the 25th anniversary of the invasion/war,
So that's (presumably) why Blair wrote that article.
The referendum was just unnecessary, that's all.
There's a fair point buried within that
But what I say surely goes against it? It's clearly very much in the forefront of the minds of normal argentine people.
Only because the government and press over there make it the pressing issue.
Bread and circuses, innit?
Can we not just get all the oil out
And then leave Argentina the desolate pile of rocks that it keeps banging on about?
yeah lets just drink their milkshake
teacher told me that there are no apples
fuckin' 'ell
This thread is very broken
Did something get deleted?
not enough of it
A friend of mine is in the Navy
and spent a couple of weeks there last year/year before. He said it was awful. Grey, muddy, boring, freezing cold. Like a shit, unusually large northern commuter village deposited off the tip of the actual fucking antarctic.
So all that's left is its strategic location atop possible oil reserves. Argentina are basically claiming it via proximity alone(?), where the British claim is based on what looks like simply being last man standing in an absurd succession of retreating imperial powers using the infallible method of leaving a plaque behind to let everyone know not to mess with their stuff while they're gone. And, of course, successfully leaving behind an actual population who identified as British. But even if the islanders are just a strategic lever, a tool to be used by our government to continue to claim sovreignty, does that disqualify the wishes of the inhabitants? Invasion, and inhabitation, isn't that just how it goes? Weird times. Can't really see how this is ever going to resolve itself, especially as it's the go-to hot button for feisty Argentine leaders to distract their populace from any internal problems with every couple of years.
Yup.
Entirely agree with the last sentence...though plenty of the Argentines I met when I was there recently (whilst still insisting on Argentina's right to the Malvinas), are more angry as the ineptitude of their own government over the past few decades...
Ah, the law of baggsy
that's the most legitimate claim anyone can make I guess
Do you have a flag?
do I!
can we make this the OP and delete the rest of the thread please
But i done a good OP
this thread
rebuilderendum
maybe the UK will repatriate the Chagos Islanders?
in order to not be hypocrites
I'm a bit late for the party on this thread but...
as a Falkland Islander it has been an incredible 24 hours. Bit of a mix of comments here (couple of which are quite offensive) but I'd hope that the referendum result will highlight our right to self determination and that we deserve the right to choose our own future. It's been a difficult couple of years with a large aggressive neighbour of 40 million people bullying a population of 3000 trying effectively to install an economic blockade on us. People now feel really positive about the future thanks to the result.