Ongoing gambling thread
Seems like there's a few people here who enjoy a flutter. So why don't we have a thread to post up tips/ successes/ tales of woe. Football season is in full swing, and we're just coming into National Hunt season on the horses. I'm sure there are other things to bet on too.
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Good idea
I bet a lot on football but only small sums (e.g bet £4 over 3 different bets last night)
As I bet small money, I tend to make my accumulators ridiculous so I get a hefty return. And of course they never come in.
Any tips for tonight gentlemen?
I do that sort of thing too
End up putting £1 on 5 different things, then realise that unless they all come off, the best I can hope for is my money back. Started thinking I might just be better lumping it all on one thing, that way I at least get a decent return. Think I just enjoy the feeling of having a winning bet more than getting the money.
Can't see many goals this evening. Think Norwich are overpriced at 13/5 against Southampton. Win and a draw against Man U and Everton in their last 2. Will probably put a bit on them (although I've backed Southampton in forzaborza's accy thread!)
Got Man Utd to win from behind at 5/1 on Betfair
and Everton, Stoke, City, Chelsea and Villa (already in) on an accumulator.
Been in a rich vein of betting form the last few weeks with two accumulators coming in along with a couple of *Utd to win from behind* and specific result ones.
when you gamble on stuff like football, do you pay attention to odds much
and consider it like that, or do you just bet on something that you think might happen?
Depends what sort of money you're playing with.
Personally, if it's a small amount, the former.
If it's a big amount, the latter.
so, for example, when you do your weekend accumulator
you consider the odds on each individual match and whether they are "fair"
Yeah
I always look for at least EVS on every team I'm putting on so the return is worthy.
that's nothing to do with "fair" odds though
Depends what fold the bet is.
If it's say, a double or treble, yes.
If it's a 10-teamer, no, because that's largely pot luck.
fold is like, the number of things in the accumulator?
it's not really pot luck though, there are just a wider array of outcomes
Combination of the two
If I think it's going to happen and it's good value odds then I'm in. If I think it's going to happen but the odds aren't worth it I'm out. If it's unlikely but the odds are too good to turn down I'll sometimes have a speculative flutter.
when you consider something "good odds" is there any maths in it? or just that you are getting what you consider to be a decent return
I avoid maths whenever possible
It's all about context isn't it, the value on offer is dependent on the likelihood of something happening.
For example I got odds of 4/1 for Southampton to beat QPR a week or so ago, given QPR are yet to win a game this season and Southampton had looked ok going forward but just shit defensively this was really good value and I had a punt. Had the odds been 2/1 or so it wouldn't have been worth it for me.
that first line isn't quite right. the value is based on the probability of something happening vs the odds you are getting.
being offered 1000/1 can be bad value.
It's all a bit subjective
The basic idea of working out good odds is if you think what will happen ought to happen more than what the bookie thinks it is. For example, if you were betting on a 6 being rolled, with a fair dice, you'd expect odds of 5/1. If you found someone offering you odds of 7/1, theyre good odds.
it's not subjective at all
your example proves that
it is if you're not betting on a dice roll
it's still an event with various outcomes that you can calculate the probability of though
Not with the amount of variables there are though
really? Like it's more complex and very difficult, but it's not random
unless you're trying to vaguely allude to game theory
i don't know why you're going down this path, of course there are outcomes that you can try and calculate the probabilities of but here are so many variables and so much information going into a football game that it has to be subjective.
well it's the only smart approach
you can get better than evens on flintoff's fight coming up
they'd never put him in against someone he'd lose to i reckon.
doesnt ricky hatons comeback fight negate that?
Nah.
The sensible money there was always on a Hatton defeat.
Senchenko's not a mug.
It's been quite easy to predict teams to lay recently (heh).
NEWCASTLE at Southampton
ARSENAL at Villa
EVERTON v Norwich
NEWCASTLE v Swansea
CHELSEA v Liverpool
Might even lay CHELSEA tonight (heh), but not sure yet.
Don't really bet as much nowadays, just do my little 10-team accies.
The only virtually nailed-on, money-spinning banker is to back United whenever they go behind (though lost a few quid when they played Norwich). City aren't half bad at this nowadays either.
Agreed with the Utd going behind thing
Though the odds are always shit considering they are behind, 9 times out of 10 they will win.
Cut out the middle man and just go for a win from behind from the outset
No point waiting for the inevitable first goal going the other way
You're doing it wrong.
The odds are only shit when they're one goal behind against a shit team at home, in which case you have to hope they go two behind.
At home against a good team they'll go to around evens.
A goal down away against anyone they're always well odds-on.
Ideal scenario, you want them to go two goals down, within an hour, ideally by half-time, away at a bottom half club. I've got 10/1, 12/1, even 16/1 doing that before. If memory serves me right, they did it three times during 10/11.
Surprised more fans of both Manchester clubs don't do it when the opposing side goes behind, really, given how often both of them have pulled it off over the last couple of years.
* This is all building up to one of them not doing it tonight, really.
No we're not
They were about 5/1 to win vs Villa at HT when they were 1-0, which I'd class as shit (i.e not big enough to risk. However when they went to 2-0 down all was good.
5/1 on United to beat Villa not big enough?
Again, i think you're just doing it wrong, mate.
Get on them at 0-1 (other bookies were offering 7/1, btw - always best to shop around), then lower stakes IF they go two behind.
Win/win. You're never going to go absolutely big on a team at 2-0.
usually put on between 5-10 coupons a week
and maybe bet on whatever game im watching. On a run at the moment of 3 successive weeks of big victories. Hopefully it will continue tonight.
Any tips for tonight?
I fancy Spurs to beat Liverpool but pretty much every fixture could go either way (except Utd/West Ham cause they're at home)
Move over, lads...
I'll show you how it's done.
£31.17 on United to win, Wigan draw or better.
A hundred beer tokens.
Thank-you very much!
My mate is about £17,000 up this year just on football betting
He doesn't even like it and only started doing it in February. Don't think i've ever won more than about £20 myself, just always so bad at picking matches all the results seem so likely
Tip for tonight
You can get 2/1 for Leyton Orient to win at Northampton in the Johnstons Paint Trophy. Seems a very big price considering Orient are in a higher division, and on a 6 game winning streak in all competitions.
Good shout. Gone for Orient, Man Utd -1 & Shakhtar tonight.
Roughly 25/1 for the treble.
Be nervous about the Man U -1 there
Never like backing stuff where the team doesn't care about the result. Cluj really need the win/ at least a point. Can see it being a draw.
It's not gonna happen
I won a fortune after a series of continuous winning bets at the Euros, haven't won a bet since.
why don't we all gamble against each other instead?
we'd have to set up a trustworthy escrow but that could be fun
It's a good idea.
I say this to people in real life.
I guess they're naturally wary of not being able to cover bets, but if the 'banker' only offered liabilities up to a certain amount, it shouldn't be a problem.
it happens a lot on the poker forum i use and it makes things really fun
trusted escrows take everything before the event and then ship to the winning parties afterwards. it's easier that everyone on those sites has a pokerstars account or whatever that you can use for funds transfers between people but there you go. i meet too many people that want to make a bet and then expect to not have to pay when they lose. it's not on. i don't really like gambling on sports or whatever at the bookies but against friends? love it
I basically just follow
@vfp_betting and www.cheekybettingtips.co.uk
The latter is absolutely brill. The former nailed a 50/1 ish treble on the horses on the weekend.
After winning big I put a tenner on betfair, but have lost it all pretty much straight away. Don't like this 2 quid minimum bet malarkey.
I only put a fiver in my account at a time, and withdraw anything over £10, only topping up when I'm out. According to my spreadsheet since Aug I'm £72 up. Mostly from an outrageous lucky 15 that won me £90 odd off 75p
The first bet I put on was a Champions League final two years ago.
Put on a fiver. Won £410 back. I was delighted.
Won one bet this season. Probably lost more than I've put on though.
Right lads, as promised...
BASH THE BOOKIE is returning for a one-off special, and i'm going big in the game. Now that i don't really have a preference as to who wins, i can bet with my head instead of my heart.
Those of you who were around last season will recall how i repeatedly had the bookies' pants down and ended the season with a nice ale fund. For the newer posters amongst our ranks, sit back and watch the master at work.
Without having seen too much of either side, particularly in the league, my opinion is that United should win today, and most of the more respected betters who generally win big tend to agree. They're nearly 3/1, might even be by kick-off, you can't ignore that sort of price, it's like printing money...
BET 1: United to win, £90 @ 27/10 (£333)
I fancy quite a convincing away win here, to be honest. United really owe City one for the 1:6, and another for half-inching their title. With the extra firepower van Persie offers, i can see them racing into a couple of goal lead then picking City off later, so i'm getting on the handicap bets...
BET 2: United -1, £12 @ 15/2 (£102)
BET 3: United -2, £8 @ 12/1 (£104)
BET 4: United -3, £4 @ 25/1 (£104)
Given i'm so confident of an away win, it'd be silly not to back these two bad boys, as well...
BET 5: United to win both halves, £6 @ 16/1 (£102)
BET 6: United HT/FT, £15 @ 6/1 (£105)
In these sort of games, the most obvious stories often play out. Man City wanted van Persie, no-one can deny that. Not enough to ever actually bid for him at any point according to Arsene Wenger, but City would've probably had a few more goals with him, and he's certainly made United more potent in attack. Him downing City's a great bet, and he does the business regularly away from home, so...
BET 7: RVP brace, £11 @ 8/1 (£99)
BET 8: RVP hat-trick, £3 @ 40/1 (£123)
Just to round the total stake up to a whole figure, i've chucked a quid on a mad scorline, too...
BET 9: United to win 1-6, £1 @ 500/1 (£501)
So in total, that's £150, with a potential return of £1573. I've got another £50 in the kitty incase City take a one-goal lead, in which case i'll throw that on United, which depending on the time of the goal (up to around 80 minutes), if that does happen, should get me anyhere between about 5/1 & 12/1.
Bottom line is thus - you have to go big to win big. Of these ten bets, that i will hereon in call The Magic Ten, i'd expect at least six to come in, but even if just Bet 1 does, i'll have doubled my stake. It's inconceivable, bording on impossible that i won't be celebrating winning tonight, and i suggest you lot all take this chance to earn yourselves some extra beer tokens, even the needlesslydefensives amongst our ranks.
Before you all start begging, no, this won't be coming a regular feature again. You can keep your moneyball, i'm off to watch a proper game. 'mon the Stanley!
It's inconceivable, bording on impossible that i won't be celebrating winning tonight
Seems legit.
90 minutes gone - £150 down
Full time - £300 up.
Lovely work. I backed United but cashed out at half time like a wimp - 'only' £50 up.
;-D
Great stuff.
Going straight into the away days fund. Should get about eight non-league groundhops out of that.
Had over 3.5 goals today before kick off.