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anyone following this?
Marine le pen gets 20% in the first exit polls. jfc
what the fuck
sarkozy's gonna go after le pen's support. The share that the whole of the left took was lower than expected.
waiting for melenchon's statement
eva joly used hers to condemn the FN
I hate elections.
Hollande will still win the second round most likely
most of them will abstain in the 2nd round.
The fact that the far right tend to hate the moderate right (and, for that matter, the far left not being too keen on the moderate left) is a pretty common factor in most countries' politics.
My mere point is that it's a (common) mistake that often comes up in discussing politics to assume the far-right will automatically support the moderate-right and the far-left will automatically support the moderate-left.
Besides, the 20% also means it'd be folly to assume that the appeal only stretches to
disgruntled UMP voters. Some will be for sure but it's far from a default assumption that UMP is their natural home.
Polls taken on Sunday suggested that between 48 and 60 percent of Le Pen voters planned to switch to the president.
apparently Sarkozy would need about 70% at least so it's hardly way off.
Don't know why you're implying that I've ASSUMED that they're going to AUTOMATICALLY switch their support though.
All I'm saying is that a lot of people assume that in PR elections people who vote for extreme parties will automatically transfer their votes to more moderate parties of a similar persuasion after their preferred candidate is knocked out and it's far from an automatic process - which is born out if only 5 or 6 out of 10 actually do that.
Nothing I've posted is about you at all.
It's easier to just let it go.
don't think tgwnu was saying they were all far right nutters either.
He did sound like he was calling me thick though ;)
I also at no point have assumed all NF voters are far right. I actually have no idea at all why you keep repeating that assertion.
I also don't assume all people who vote for non-established parties despise the run-off parties (although I accept my post below did generalise somewhat, I actually I meant a number of them rather than all of them so I accept that misunderstanding's my fault).
With the rest of it, it's pretty pointless for me to address arguments I've not actually made.
not you are ignorant. God!
DD used the word ignorant, Lemonbrickcombo used the word stupid. I just focussed on the actual discussion at hand and ignored that part of the conversation. I couldn't give a fuck about all that petty nonsense.
ARE YOU LOOKIN' AT MY BIRD?!
so there's still no logical reason to think they'll turn out for Sarkozy in the second round.
I fancy Melenchon.
he's like radical john prescot with ideas
I dislike Sarkozy going after the Schengen Agreement as part of his swing to the right. I'm hoping it's just election bullshit that'll disappear after the 2nd tour but I find it worrying. Hopefully if Hollande wins he'll drop the whole thing.
insists that they were right to concentrate on attacking le pen and says 'shame on those who did not' (sarkozy)
repeats the internationalist agenda of the left
my best guess would be that melenchons success in the polls and the 'hype' worked against his favours with workers
hey says that he respects the votes of all french people because it is testament to their diversity (wonder who that is aimed at...)
helpfully reminds us that the debt crisis is not over
It's pretty depressing to think one in five of the people who vote in France are voting for their equivalent of the BNP.
the workers vote traditionally fights it out on the far left and far right. The right has always had more of a hold on workers in france than they do here.
it fucking sucks
Chorus roughly translates as "I want something concrete like a zebra crossing"
bet we don't get within 20% of that
between their major parties I imagine.
Hollande is so centrist it's painful. He's also incredibly boring.
Boring > Sarkozy
Give the man a round of applause ladies and gentlemen!
You tell me instead.
but I could only find it in HMV on Oxford Street and it was £18 on import. I didn't get it, but I think her music is good.
I lack the language skills to ask either.
Is it enough to call him a prick and not qualify it or do you want some expansion?
They don't actually know enough his policies to have an opinion of their own.
You're the only one here who reads the Guardian
I'm merely slating him by default 'cos he's a centre-right politician.
i only dislike him because Libération told me to
He's seen as being to obsessed with money and elitist. Also plenty of French people feel he's lurched too far to the right and is actually very racist. Lots of people blame him for all the recent problems they've had with les banlieues.
Le Pen did better than polls suggested because people don't like to admit they'll vote for the FN.
Le Pen has said she wants to see the destruction of the UMP and the people who voted for her aren't the sort of people to hold their noses and vote Sarko to keep Hollande out.
Hollande has 28.5% of the vote + Melenchon's 11% + Joly's 2%. Plus some of Bayrou's supporters will probably go to him as well.
As far as I'm aware no candidate in the era of the Fifth Republic has ever finished second after the first round and gone on to win the Presidency. Sarko's a fighter and he'll pull out all the stops but the arithmetic's against him.
- Perrier water comes from there
- Boycott perrier
- Sarkozy wants 3 debates... fuck that
Especially given that, outside those of Ancient Cultures, I have no idea how political systems work, so it all seems gloriously alien to me!
not too difficult to understand...
But I didn't know that.
Let me bathe in my bloody glorious ignorance.
still pretty worrying but at least its not 20
more surprising still is Bayrou getting 9.
I feel like it's very low for him, but again, not unexpected. It's a shame, he's one of the best candidates
or rather, the papers would have had you believe he'd been completely forgotten about with the rest of non-sarko/hollande vote being fought out on the fringes between melenchon and le pen
bayrou is a total grumbly loser anyway with nothing much to say. whatever your opinion on what went on between melenchon/le pen, i really struggle to see what a rigourously centrist perspective adds to the debate given frances culture/politics
someone who's actually talking about what a complete shambles their economy is, maybe? He's literally the only one who's anything close to credible on public finances. I also like his foreign affairs policy.
Melenchon is wonderful until you realise he wouldn't say half of the things he says if he thought he had a reasonable chance of actually being elected.