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how's that gonna pan out then?
is the Euro gonna go titzup or what?
The Wall Street Crash of 1929 was just the start of that crisis - the tipping point came in 1930/31 as world trade began to collapse after a second panic in US consumer spending. By late 1930 the NY stock exchange had managed to reach early 1929 levels again, but that apparent recovery hid the essential structural flaws in the economy that knocked that nascent recovery on its head.
If Greece goes under then it will drag down Portugal, which will drag down Spain, which will drag down Italy and Ireland, which will then spread to the rest of the Eurozone, then the wider EU and world economy. It would be a massive clusterfuck.
The financial crisis of 2008 was averted because there were governments around to bail out the banks - we're looking at a situation where it's countries that need bailing out, and once you've got the lenders of last resort being the ones on the ropes then it completely destroys any confidence left in the system.
Woohoo. We can only hope that €110bn is enough, really.
They did, you know. Crazy.
I reckon the markets are gonna steer well clear of the euro for a while and so the entire eurozone is going to take a knock directly no?
Greece should go into administration
or become federalised - like being nationalised only jointly own by federal europe instead
Flippancy aside though, if you take a look at what the Athens Olympics cost Greece one wonders what will come of London 2012
There are a huge number of very fragile and very large economic entities around Europe at the moment, and it's hard to predict exactly what might fall with any of them should any of them fall.
when people will give a shit
the end of the world can wait i'm getting pissed
didnt think so
to be standing back,hanging around with the ex waffen-SS kids, talking about nationalism, ignoring inextricably linked markets, cos it's cool to slag off the foriners cummin ova 'ere.
is this a SamCam thing?
well that's a relief then
"you can't have a currency unless there is a federal authority that can redistribute money as required. an authority that had significant tax-raising powers."
Not sure what this means. Can you elaborate, please?
But then I'm in favour of denationalising money and in allowing free, 100% reserve banking, both things which would never have allowed the current crisis to occur.
It's not really crazy (hear me out here), being more common throughout human history than the relatively new innovation of fiat money and monopolised money. Worked really well, too.
The thing is, once you've got a central bank acting as a lender of last resort, it a) protects the banks from market forces, and so allows them to become absolutely ruddy massive and 'too big to fail', and b) it grants the government the ability to spend far more money than it could otherwise afford to if it had to balance the books, thus massively increasing and cementing the size of the state.
Andrew Jackson dismantled the second Federal Reserve precisely because the centralised banking it afforded was a danger to liberty.
But that's the theory. Feel free to chortle in response.
you should be able to watch it on your 3D TV, eh Vikkers? :D
That's the same Keynes who was strongly in favour of spending our way out of recessions by using borrowed money to stimulate demand. In his view, a large deficit was a price worth paying as long as the money kept circulating within the economy - hence, in the long run, it doesn't matter about debt, we're all dead. By contrast, libertarian banking policies favour long-term stability and steady growth over short-term gain (that is, the kind of gain that can win a few election cycles).
And if you're worried about stability, then introducing central banks is one of the worst things you can do. It drives up inflation and increases the frequency and size of economic contractions.
For example, a graph of one measure of inflation against time:
In 1913 the US established the third (and current) Federal Reserve. In 1933, it went off the gold standard.
Notice that the previous spikes in annual inflation before those events coincided with large wars - that is, periods of large government spending. As soon as you let that beast off the leash and let it spend as much as it wants then inflation will start to accelerate. This leads to economic instability.
Classically liberal economics assumes PRECISELY that the system is uncontrollable and unpredictable. Whilst some people MAY act rationally, and MAY act with perfect knowledge, clearly most people don't. These economic policies don't pretend that human behaviour is robotic, and thus isn't arrogant enough to think that anyone could be elected into a position of power who would be able to control and amend the system in a god-like manner. That's the nature of state intervention in the economy - history shows that every state intervention just leads to a mass of unforeseen consequences which must, in turn, be compensated for with more state intervention. It's arrogant, to presume that one person or one institution can run an economy rationally and with perfect knowledge.
it would default and therefore shaft other eurozone economies - hence the bail out
so those other economies would have to be kicked out thus default, thus shafting other eurozone economies etc
thing is, if any of the other eurozone economies face the problem that Greece has then they will be expected to get a bail out too
plus, if Greece don't stick to their austerity measures then they do face the threat of being kicked out of the eurozone - the worst of both worlds
either way, a €110 billion bail-out of a sovereign nation's defaulting economy is something totally unprecedented so really no one can predict what might happen next or as a consequence
Please, please don't believe that piece of shit.
Did it feel good to organise the 9/11 attacks? Did you give your EVIL LAUGH when you did it?
I'm guessing the truth is probably somewhere in the middle actually.
Me and my Jewish mates were too busy putting flouride in your drinking water.
(That in turn was designed to distract you all while we stole all your gold and took it back to our lizard planet)
the current problem is only really Greece's fault to the extent that they purchased shoddy interest rate swaps on the advice of the scandalously corrupt Golmann Sachs.
The kind of run they've had on their economy could quite easily happen to the UK's, why our credit rating hasn't dropped is a mystery.
The ratings agencies don't want to be responsible for the largest depression in human history.
(Peston, KiK, etc) as a proxy for my own, or I could admit that I have absolutely no idea what's going to happen here.
I just don't know what to say about it. I don't have a degree in economics. I would have thought Greece is a surprising country for this to have happened in in Europe since I didn't realise its economy was so badly run. If I was to pick a country for this sort of thing to occur in I'd have expected maybe Italy or Spain? Though I realise Spain is having issues now.
economics for now. This sounds bad though. I don't suppose me going about my normal business is a huge help to Greece? No? I'm going to do that anyway.
it would never have been allowed in the euro to begin with.
they've been poor and to some degree fucked for a long time, the olympics pretty much finished the job but they've been able to hide behind the successes elsewhere in the eurozone until now.
should they be bailed out or kicked out d'ya reckon?
they HAVE to be, they might deserve to everything they get but europe can't afford to have a member state fail.
even one that is pretty rubbish and poor even in the best of times.
they should probably be made to stop doing things like spending such a disproportionally large amount of it's GDP on it's (useless) military
and don't forget they're protecting a significant part of the european border too
didn't want to cast aspersions at the filthy turks, slavs, serbs & bosnians though
it's just there to sit looking out to turkey twiddling it's thumbs.
it isn't a mobile fighting force, it can't do shit all in the balkans which is why the ESDP relies so heavily on countries like France and the UK to even pretend to be a credible force.
probably not aye but y'never know
Retiring at an age where all your faculties are intact and you can enjoy the fruits of your labour? Not on my watch...
Was imagining swarms of Greek 50-somethings swanning round town and clogging up the buses early doors.
Germany realises that it's the core of funding this operation, and says 'fuck you', and leaves the euro. Greece also leaves and can then devalue.
Could be INSANE.