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so this'll either drag us out of the recession, or we'll be making kites out of £50 notes in the not too distant future
I heard something on the news this morning but was still half asleep.
there's no need to physically print more money (as far as I'm aware).
There's a useful faq for people who are interested in such things here:
At the moment, with inflation on a downward trend and in the magnitude that they’re talking about (£75bn) it’s not going to devalue savings that much, but I’m concerned that the whole approach seems to be driven by the desire to get banks lending again (i.e. place more individuals into debt).
And is probably not going to work for us, given that we're not completely comparable to Japan?
be too aggressive and we'll be faced with hyperinflation, be too timid and we face the risk of copying what happened to the Japanese economy in the late 90s.
In fact I have heard no 'eminant' leaders suggest anything like that which even acknowledges the fundamental underlying problems, let alone redressing them.....of course they might not want to bring them up now, they seem to be convinced that they can return to a situatiion that we were in a few years ago......cos thats the world they think they understand......unfortunately you have all chosen a bunch of not very abled to be your leaders....im glad they're not mine
or superiors or of greater judgement or other virtues.
I didnt choose them, they can send people to make me comply with their orders or compell me by force...but leaders to me they are not, that implies a sort of following
i was playing devil's advocate i suppose. your earlier comment was a bit of a generalisation that stands against the position you take though. i mean, i don't know how many of us are or aren't complicit really. i think we all are, that none of us are and that some of us are.
I have tried to always make people see, and consequently have not reaped all the rewards that are offered to people under consumerism/capitalism, unfortunately i have not suceeded....then again neither have others......some people love what advantages an incorrect system gives them and they back it to the hilt and revel in its spoils.
if you do not consider what you could do otherwise.....it is not always possible to live outside of the extant society. One needs resource...for instance the wonderful community of findhorn still requires that you manage to make yourself a load of spare dosh from the extant system first (or inherit it), its much less possible if you were poor from the outset and catch 'their' eye early on in your life.
I'm going on holiday to the US in May, and it makes me cry the exchange rate does.
flights and hotels booked, also the thing I'm going to is not happening in Ukraine. More's the pity.
unless there is an intervening sudden abandonment of countries (starting with china) using the US dollar as their reserve currency.
You see the reason that the USD has faired quite well compared with GBP (although EUR is better than both) is that many countries have it as their 'reserve currency'
Im not sure of the true figures.....maybe china has about half a trillion USD...when things started to look rocky other countries are not keen on the USD crashing cos then they lose out......China might want to have made their own currency (CNY) king by selling the USD and maybe forwarning the brick countries to sell usd and buy their currency CNY....but they would ensure they would have sold their USD first....but this would cause a run on USD and probably upset other 'new' economies greatly...they might then decide to have the EUR as the reserve currency.....however as it gets revealed that there are no sure safe economic regions, it is probable that countries will not suddenly jump ship from one reserve currency to another..........
The problem with this is that it flatters to decieve and the USD would have crashed and burned more than the GBP would has at the moment.....however if the USD was allowed to crash totally then it would bring down GBP further and faster than say EUR or CNY
and the countries using it as their reserve have a vested interest in not selling rakes of it off, as if they do, that will send the value plummeting, devaluing the rest of their reserves.
I hate when macroeconomic issues threaten my ability to have a good time!
if china sneaked a few hints to someone like india/china/brazil/korea...suggesting they might want to get ready and get ready to buy up CNY and then suddenly try to do it all in one fell swoop (although finding buyers will not be possible before they've sold all their USD and it has already plummeted.....but they would still be considerably better off IF others buy CNY.....but it would be so risky to try to do that....so they probably didnt try (simply cos they have so much USD that they would have problems shifting in one go)
others would realise that china was abandoning it and thus they would have problems shifting the rest of their reserve cos no one would want to buy the dollars as they were going down.......therefore other countries with large reserves of USD have not had an opportune moment top sell em all off really
is misplaced. They don't want to be seen to be challenging United States, particularly when the US has a policy of reacting to any incident as a threat (see Taiwan Straits, Spy Plane).
China reportedly has $2trn reserves
and he seemed very reasonable about it all. They definitely don't want the dollar to fall for the reasons outlined above, and have basically been supporting the massive debt of the US for the last 10/20 years.
He did say that it would be nice for the US to treat them with a bit more respect though, under the circumstances. But I don't think they are out to ruin the US, as that would be as bad for them as for anyone else (outwith the US). Tried to find the interview, but couldn't - I think it was maybe at www.theatlantic.com
i didnt mean china was sneaky.....what i meant was that there was a point where china might have been the country that might have been able to supplant its own CNY as a replacement reserve currency instead of rhe usd......When i said 'sneaked' that would just be normal sort of capitalism/economic/market trading sort of hints and clues sort of thing, nothing out of the ordinary inb the world of market trding or anything......it wouldnt be sneaky, suddenly selling all of one currency to try to replace it wiht your own is not senaky or underhand, as it would not be done unless there was a compelling reason to do so, and as it is it better suits chinas leadership (in their eyes) to not do this......i was just saying discussing there what some people had postulated that COULD have happened to the USD in 'its' worst scenario.
I was trying to emphasise how the USD is kinda unusual and artificially boosted by the jeopardy many would have were it to crash, even countries who you might think might not be on best terms with the us (if they hold reserves)
China is actually the country that has helped hold the dollar up beyond its own means, by the fact that they have so much...china is at risk because if the USD crashes then they would be left holding more worthless USD than other countries (apart from US) and if say the 'brick' countries all abandoned the usd before china then that would be worse for them....it was all hypothetical to examine why the usd is stronger than it should be....it is protected in a way that the GBP or EUR isnt
(in the what if i was postulating /\ i really didnt mean that china would be being sneaky beyond normal market behaviour.....market movements are designed to give the mover an advantage...its inherent.....perhaps i shouldnt have used the word 'sneaked' i should have said 'dropped a few hints')
the possibility that the world might look for another reserve currency, and in those circumstances only the EUR or CNY could be candidates....however if the CNY were to tke over then it would indeed have to shed all its USD as quick as it could to enable best transition to make any takeover reserve currency to not lose too much value itself
assured me that it was not as high as this.
(although neither of us has met either of them)
(like some places have done in the past with bills and with stamps)
has also existed where there has been hyperinflation....I think, correct me if im wrong please
This is screwing my easter french earnings over massively.
it is not a decision as such it is a result...its a result of FX trading and shifts of currency balances
The system that carries out the FX swaps and deals is actually an automated process using complex algorithms, whatever it manages to achieve during the days trading is what mostly feeds into the currency exchange rate changes. There is only a small 2 hour window when all the main RTGS systems are open JPY is the most critical currency to get the swaps dealt with.
I think I mean "they" as in the forces that be. I don't understand how the situation can get better really. Over my head? Yes. Rather.
more its an alien 'market force' that 'leaders' have surrendered humans fate to
to lose value compared with EUR USD CNY JPY CHF CAD etc....
very little employment in the UK seems to be making or doing things that people actually need. Our employment pattern (indeed most 'modern' econmies) is really unsustainable.....most people could/should be employed in agrarian occupations......post industrial britain should have move more to this pattern.....but the capitalist greed/goods lust was well ingrained into the UKs psyche as hippies and laid back people were ridiculed as non achievers and people who would 'never amount to much' schooling and education was geared to this too, adverts, tv, advice, lifestyle programs etc......and very few people felt able to raise their voice beyond a normal
'grumpy old men/women...im a conservative with a small c' kinda thang.
this was silly foolish selfish and greedy, but it was and is very difficult to go against the flow....and democrasy seems to legitimise silly foolish short term selfishness, as long as it is what the majority are prompted into believing that is what they want (they dont actually want it if one were to ask them....but what they really want is never presented as a practical achievable thing....no they are presented with 'if you dont want to get left behind/miss out on your piece of the action then agree with us'
IF a country like india had our employment pattern/economic with regard to the mix of urban commerce/industry against agrarian then there would be half a billion unemployed adults.......the pattern of western nations is not possible to be rolled out in all 'developing' countries of the world.
The fact that the western model is attempting to be rolled out to all the 'developing countries of the world is an example of an underlying and bigger problem that lies beyond 'the credit crunch' which is what most numpties seem to think is the BIG problem with the world economy.....it is the next hurdle to try to negotiate, but the reason that it will not be able to clear it cleanly is due to the other problems that are not recognised as such.
I know that a lot of you like to picture my bucolic ideal as beng hippyish in the country and backwrd.....this is exactly what hold back society from attempting to find an improved and equitable and more sustainable post industrial agrarian society.
We service a modern machine, we are agents of it, if we are not agents(cogs) of it then we are labelled (lazy,selfish,a drain,niave,commies,ungrateful,disrespecting the freedom our grandfathers fought and died for) bigger agencies within the system will manipulate public opinion to ensure this is how most people viw things....and then they tie up peoples questioning and slight doubts by having th majority, who are herded/coralled in their choices (by media/spin/lies/sophistry/distraction) to 'vote' for what is offered.....thus apparently illegitimising anyones quest/call for something different.
Huge reformation is needed.....i do not want war or revolution...i am a parent and have an elderly mother (like many other people) If reformation is resisted too much by extant powers then it makes breaking points more likely.....the crisis we are now all facing, will be, i fear, the breking point......and since all countries now seem t have adopted the same flawed (even if it was more successful at beating other systems in the terms that it defined as being the measurement of success....gdp measurement appeals most to leaders ) economic system/model/mechanisms and these are all linked, all/most the countries will suffer breakage. those more with the system ingrained will suffer most (of course people will suffer in say east africa greatly too (but they always have...this sounds callous but it isnt, it is the current world that tolerates some avoidable famine, as long as it is in a country that isnt 'fully plugged in')
In countries such as th uk we have a terrible situation, very little self food production, most humans really condensed into/around centres.....take a look at a map...compare it to poland, where the population is far more distributed into small medium towns across the whole country with only a relative few big cities........
if the current ystms collapsed in each of these countries, at least in poland populations could more easily travel to a more rural area to do some horticulture/farming....in the uk it would be very difficult.
I am appalled that successive governments have DELIBERATELY allowed this country to become less self sufficient in exchange to attempt to maximise GDP increase.....it is appallingly short sighted and shows shallow understanding or appreciation of what their position means (they got glamoured by stuff like the cold war, al buying into the belief that commies would kill themselves too if they could take the west out in the process (this attitude was strangely more common in the US...but vice versa obviously)
after the rationing and privations resulting from WWII rather than build on the countries strength and leaness, there followed a diet of weight gain...let technology have its fill and provide the people with 'labour/time saving stuff, for which leaders and govs tried to take credit...however in embracing this 'stuff' they built up a patern of manufacture and consumerism that they continued BEYOND the very real advantages of just having a fridge say...or the real delights of the goggle box......because theyd got into a pattern, consumption and consumerism went flabby and pointless and needless.....developements are mostly not real improvements, they are adaptations, goods are made disposable/prone to wear out...consumerism actually starts to serve making money for needless things rather than genuine savers from back breaking work.....sure mp3 playas are great things who wouldnt want one, there are exceptions, but that does not apply to most of what we now make or do as a service.....mostly it is for needless consumption or for servicing the system.........the UK was well on its way to becoming the 'B ship' (hitchhikers guide to the galaxy centric...our saving grace being our artists/musicians and a few inventors)
but i think the trouble with it is that there isn't really a problem with the amount of people farming, is there? modern industrial farming isn't really all that labour intensive. the biggest limitation on how much we can farm is surely how much land we have available.
i mean, fundamentally, the reason why we have so many people employed in tertiary industries is because
a) as an economy, we have enough money to be able to not do so much, to produce more money by investment.
b) technologically, we've improved. the simple reality is that manufacturing and agricultural output requires a fraction of the amount of people it did 200 years ago. its cheaper and easier to produce things, and as such there's a greater profit margin all down the line of design-production-retail which means that more tertiary jobs can be sustained.
especially due to (b), my argument is that we aren't going to go in the direction you're talking about. technology is only going to lead to an INCREASE in tertiary jobs.
my writing style is not particularly attractive.
Perhaps you may think i am deluded....but, do you really think i am not intelligent/knowledgable enough to realise that modern industrial farming does not need many people?
I am not (as you might gather) talking about changing one bit or another....everything needs to change...modern farming is not sustainale as it is either, it requires industry, all modern civilisation has found itself going down unsustainable paths....industrialisation of farming became more necessary as humans were required by businesses to service manufacturing and cities....an alternative to both industrial/mechanised farming and to slavish serfdom, would be vastly imporoved horticulture with far morehuman input that is ffordable since the 'fruits' are more for the individuals who WILL need less dosh to spend co they wont spend on shite they dont need.....we have many many soft benighn improvements to horticulture that are not dependant on chemicals or petrol...the improvements to method and in informtion/reference nowledge would have been enpough to make agrarian life in this country equitable....of course intervention/wars/desire by some to have extreme profit causes things not to run smoothly.....populations have swollen and no attempt has been made to find benigner ways to limit it cos increased population means making more things which is good if you are a premier, cos you feel you re in competition with othr premiers/countries.....soetimes this is genuine and real (some countries do have premiers that act as aggressors and invade) sometimes it is not
Land was of course divied up and big rich landowners/coporations were able to 'claim' common land for their own (as long a syou had th eresource to get a lawyer to write smething official and put it in the hands of someone who is 'anm authority' (this authority is apparently more eimportant than if you used the land your parents and grand parents and great grandparents did...it is important to have a flag and legal status as authorities do not recognise anything else (this extends even to human rights.....apparently humans only have rights as long as they are encapsulated in some officially rcognised document in some fancy building somewhere.....yes i know i know thats the way the world works...and to me in some ways, it seems just as arbitary as any adherance to an organised religeon.
Anyway where was i ...oh yes.....of course i know that industialised industry doesnt need people......insted it relies on farmers buying complex manufactured stuff that neesds petrol and a loan for the farm business to afford (as it will be brought in one large chunk)
and more dependant on more evenly distributed intelligent sympathetic/complimentry intensive horticulture (it will need to be intensive cos we've bred too well and no ones tried to save us from this)
you haven't adequately explained why we ought to be an agrarian society.
less dependant on esploiting peopleout of sight out of mind.........................and most importantly more sustainable than what is current, which is unsustainable and is about to collapse and in its current state when everything collapses not only will we lose lifes luxories and conveniances...even our staple necessities are tied up in reliance on the industrial system, which if it collapses doe snot leave us with a possibility of people being able to at least work the land to produce some food.
So to answer you with non emotive stuff...its more sustainable and reduces the tragic effects of any collapse...i.e. less risky
will have been r4ealised to be that....it was always assumed that certain improvements would come along that would fix its brittleness/unsustainability...unfortunately commercial competativeness has always meant that any such improvements have not been followed, thus now leaving us on the brink of it collapsing, and due to what it has replaced, we wont be able to easily return to the land...it is more difficult now than ever before (human distribution in uk all round cities big towns) If we had to move to cultivate the land by hand (cos of industrialiations collapse/oil collapse) then we would all have to try to move there and live in tents whilst we cultivated.......if our country had gone down a more equitable route (rather than being workhorses/resource to service business/industry) and all housing were able to have a division of land with it then we could feed ourselves far better......areas should not all be horticulturally cultivated, some land should be semi managed human/new wild habitat hybrid....some should be relatively unchanged but used for some foraging
a) why would it be more egalitarian and less exploitative? there is no evidence for this. was britain more egalitarian and less exploitative when it was an agrarian economy? no. so what grounds are you basing your assertions on? exploitation and lack of equality are not things that were caused by the industrial revolution or the move to a service economy. if anything, those changes have improved matters. the idea that a decentralised system of subsistence farming would improve people's lives and be more sustainable is absurd because it simply and clearly isn't true.
b) why is industrialised farming going to collapse? you don't have any real grounds for this claim. yes, oil supplies are running low. we will find alternative energy solutions. beyond that, i can't see what you base your theory on.
and requires less cenralised support and less resource from centralised authority.
we will all be able to pretend to be pimps by throwing pound notes in massive wads at each other for a laugh.
it might start a brand new pimp / touris trade there where you can get shipped off to the island then chuck cash around while wearing a faux furr coat
it sounds brilliant!
It may as well be I guess...
nah man I just live in a little town in the country heheh
I think someone on here does / has done though.
I'm just unemployed and listen to to much dubstep.
but thats kinda easy to do on an indie site.
you could grow food and not have the major problem of huge roving desperate starving people coming out from the cities to scavange whatever they could find
It's like a breakfast cereal. I can't really imagine historians in the future writing serious analyses about something called the 'Credit Crunch'.
It was only a term used to imply recession while there wasn't officially a recession in place.
it was used to describe the problems the banks were having with bad quality credit but then got misused all over the place
is a problem that is fixated on because it has visible measurable effects that have finally bloomed into something that even the morons running financial institutions and countries cznnot be kept ignorant of...there are greater underlying less actuallised problems with the socioeconomic systm that was being rolled out across the world
All humans have make up that sometimes makes this attitude manifest, it also contributes to belief in astrology, politics, national pride, religeon etc
if it makes it any better, its the same thing as what makes placebos work, or derren browns work
something that i am victim of
reality.....for humans this has advantges....for instance we can abstract that if w do not overeat to immediate localised temporary unfavourable conditions we can later reap some reward from improved conditions...this can be a useful survival strategy, but when it becomes too an ingrained habit (as with 'civilised humans' who have to not do what they are immediately driven to do, they are constantly trained not to, they are 'broken' during growing up.) then it can become a hinderance to survival.......as long as they are kept safe by an outside system (much like cows n a farm) then they are ok but what if the outside system collapses?
sometimes non use of abstraction to look at the bigger picture is less cleer than using it (Im saying this to prove i wasnt insulting you too much) for instance , the people that write into the local papers to say 'global warming is nonsense, we've just had more snow this winter than for ages' these sort of people seem to have been unable to apply abstraction to ignore just what is in front of their faces....if you show them something shiney with your right hand then you could pick their pocket with the left hand.............................however i think that you (an many others, myself included in other areas) have carried abstraction to too large a degree, based on our habitual use of it.....its a result of you having been 'broken in' (like the horsey thing) when you were a child
I am ultra moody and maudlin today
but if the government wants i'll happily help launder the 75 billion of funny money they just made...
does anyone else think the economy is starting to look very clearly like the underpants gnomes' business plan gone global.
1. collect underpants
but currently wheeling my barrow of twenty pound notes to the local bakers before the price of bread rises again.
in british pounds for your barrow. Its expensive now, but one day (the day after this all goes tits up), that barrow will be worth a fortune.