'Mine is based on forced optimism, and the assumption of Obama slightly overperforming, at 374/164.
Which assumes he keeps all the Kerry states and adds Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia....admittedly quite a stretch. Arizona is there more as a wish than because I genuinely think he's going to win it.'
As it stands, the count is 364/174. Arizona, which has 10 electoral votes, went to McCain - which is the exact difference.
This makes up for the time I predicted King Adora were going to be the biggest band in Britain.