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It's not you, is it, CG?
I want to know if CG's met this guy!
He sounds amusing (in an admittedly psycho way).
Given that the Tory candidate in the 2005 campaign for the Watford seat ran pretty much the worst campaign of any of the parties in the race (even UKIP managed to avoid obvious own goals) and that Labour are probably out of it now (haven't won a council seat in ages, and Claire Ward doesn't seem popular) it's a big opportunity for a Tory win.
That said, the Lib Dems are very strong and high profile in Watford. Certainly Sal Brinton is very well known in the area despite not actually having any particular political position.