Mercury Nominations soon
I know there was a thread on this a little while back but there are only a couple of weeks to go until they are announced.
Just had a look on Ladbrokes (seems to have the best odds at the moment) and they've got Adele as favourite at 3/1 with PJ Harvey just behind at 6/1. Got a feeling that Adele wont win it though as she's had a little too much exposure.
Wild Beasts at 10/1 might be a punt, however The Horrors at 50/1 is a great shout for sure???
- Relevant artist taggings:
- PJ Harvey »[x]
- Wild Beasts »[x]
- Metronomy »[x]
- Ghostpoet »[x]
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You also get to tell which bands have put a few quid on themselves in hope rather than expectation
http://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/Music/Mercury-Music-PrizeMusic/Mercury-Music-Prize-t210001761
Adele'll be nominated
for the publicity's sake, and so the day after the Press Association can go, let's say "in a shock result pop sensation Adele was surprisingly beaten to the Mercury Prize by a little known Cumbrian band..."
I was thinking of Wild Beasts, actually
in the same way the press all went on about a "little known band" being nominated for an Ivor Novello this year in relation to Everything Everything, whose widely reviewed album reached number 15.
The Kayas FTW
If one artist I give a bollock about gets nominated it's a bonus
I'd be happy just to see James Blake on there, but if Burial doesn't win for Untrue then I don't see anyone like: Ikonika, LV, Mount Kimbie, Zomby, Wiley, Trim, Ekoplekz, Hyetal, Terror Danjah, Instra:mental, Kode9, Clubroot, Silkie, JME, Guido, whatever getting a look in. Not suprising mind.
Adele will prob win, I've got a feeling.
Adele won't win
As simon_t says she'll just be shortlisted. Megasellers don't win the Mercury (Arctic Monkeys apart)
Pulp & Franz Ferdinand too
and screamadelica.
its not as easy as last year
when the xx where shoe ins but I can see her winning, dunno why I can just see it happening...
Not sure who else could do it tbh, the Wild Beast buzz has long died down, James Blake's album didn't realy grab people, Jamie xx w/ Gil Scott prob aint eligabale, since one is from the US + its a bit shit. Tiny Tempa, Jason Status, & Magnetic Man are all kinda shit. Dizzee hasn't got an album this year. Horros are on some britpop tip... Tom Vek and Patrick Wolf where a load of arse. I dunno.
Jamie XX could be eligible I guess
Isobel Campbell and Mark Lanegan were shortlisted a few years back, but then she wrote the songs so that might be why.
Wild Beasts buzz died down? Hardly, it's just because it came out two months ago now.
you never hear about them off the boards tho
no papers, no real people like in the streets, no buzz anywhere but the odd mention on DiS. Its not a value judgement, I mean I'm not really into them but I don't see them getting much love outside the odd internet indie circle past the first wave on press hype. It might do them well, I'd rather they got it than Adele or Elbow or whatever but I'm not seeing it right now they're like a low key UK National, they wont gain momentum for something like this for a good ten years.
So er...
they're basically like The Xx or Elbow before they won?
Elbow's breakout "moment" was Glastonbury '08, though, wasn't it?
I thought it was winning the Mercury
Probably giving the award too much credit there
If the Mercurys went by what the average person on the street
and the papers knew, Coldplay and Amy Winehouse would be winners, not Antony and the Johnsons and Dizzee Rascal
They were on Richard Bacon's 5 Live afternoon show this week!
And Radio 4's Loose Ends today. And there's been quite a few newspaper pieces.
who?
wild beasts?
Thread's got mangled and I have no idea who anyone is moaning about.
Do you just follow shit random media in a mega boring fashion the whole time?
wow, a confrontational post from a creepy antisocial music snob on a music board
whodathunkit?
Smother was a fairly big hit on release.
Top 20 I think.
Seb Rochford & Pamelia Kurstin
did a record this year, he's always up for it haha. Its pretty ace mind, I saw them live, she was preggers in a shed in yorkshire and still rocked the theramin.
I can really really see Metronomy winning this.
god no
why not?
band who are becoming ever more successful, starting to get radio airplay, charting album that was met with very large amounts of critical acclaim.
Their essentially the mercury boards dream winner, particularly if they want them to sell records.
I'm sitting here listening to the new Go Team!
and I can't figure out how this dropped off the radar so quick. Great album. Deserves a nom.
I couldn't agree more
I love Rolling Blackouts more than life itself.
Wouldn't put it past Wu Lyf
to turn down any nomination in another 'we don't want publicity, honest guv' move.
WU LYF would be awesome
but it's not gonna happen, they're not big enough or 'coffee table alternative' enough.
Gotta be PJ really
though would love to see SMD's Delicacies get a nomination at least.
Feeling very smug...
That I got a fiver on Horrors back at 66/1 when the odds first came out. With the new album out tomorrow, that's down to 20/1.
Of course, I don't think they are actually going to win, so nothing to feel smug about really.
In a general Faris love-in, I've also had a cheeky two quid on Cat's Eyes. Its the sort of thing that will get nominated, but unlikely to win.
Why have I bet on these?
yeah the horrors album has no chance
winners are either big successful albums or new, alternative/weird (read: whatever's cool right now). the horrors aren't new, this album won't be big, and it's basically a rehash of the last record which didn't exactly set the world on fire.
of course if they do win bump this thread and i'll post a video of me literally eating a hat.
Isn't 30th June
the cut-off point anyway? In which case Skying would be too late?
Don't think so
Think the cut-off is Monday next week, I'm sure when Dizzee Rascal won his album came out the day before they did the shortlist. I could be wrong though.
Winners are debuts usually
That's the simple rule, only been three non-debuts since Pulp won in 1995 (PJ Harvey, Antony and the Johnsons, Elbow), and even one of those was a second album many people thought was a debut.
Of that Ladbrokes longlist,
I'd love Trembling Bells - The Constant Pageant to win it but it defo won't. I'd be happy to see ill Wells & Aidan Moffat - Everything's Getting Older win, and it could. At 50-1, I've been thinking about putting a speculative chunk on it. With some on PJ, too, even if the two-times-winner thing might be seen as an barrier.
I'm throwing my considerable influence behind Yuck.
Then I'm gonna open a McDonald's franchise next to No.10 Downing St.
33-1 in the Ladbrokes link upthread.
adele is not jazz.
From that list
Katy B is very good odds to win @ 16/1.
The list will change once prediction articles start to be penned.
I don't think she'll win
just think that 16/1 for someone who will almost certainly be on the list and will be a front-runner IMO is a good price. I'll certainly be on Betfair if she's that ghigh come the 19th. Then will be laying her (eh lads?) when the price comes in.
There must be some value
..in sticking a fiver on the token jazz/folk album each year. Eventually you'll make back all the money you lost and then some. Besides, the Mercurys are overdue a wilfully perverse winner (Talvin Singh was probably the last one, right?)
Speech Debelle was their last 'shock' winner
Still, last year the favourite won by miles so it wouldn't surprise me if they went leftfield again.
these are actually announced NEXT tuesday
My guesses:
PJ Harvey
Metronomy
Friendly Fires
Wild Beasts
James Blake
Outside chances
Mount Kimbie (which I think came out the week after last year closed)
Ghostpoet
Katy B
Darkstar
Should be on there but probably won't be
The Phantom Band
Luke Abbott
Forest Swords
Bill Wells & Aidan Moffat
you reckon there's room for both blake and woon?
Darkstar is a good shout for nomination
but do you think Hyperdub will fork out for it?
I wouldn't read much
into changes in odds before the nominations, even if it was leaked that someone was on the list for sure they'd not come into be favourites to win. Note that this time in 2009 Doves were favourites to win, where on everyone's predictions lists and didn't get nominated.
I think it's between James Blake and PJ Harvey.
Of the other popular acts, I don't think The Horrors, Wild Beasts, Friendly Fires, Metronomy, Noah and the Whale have a chance [in hell]. I remember when I thought Bloc Party were going to win for Silent Alarm !
Can't see James Blake or PJ Harvery winning
James Blake will be seen as too similar to the XX and PJ Harvey has won already. Not that they won't be nominated, I'm sure they will. I honestly have no idea who will win this year, probably Wild Beasts or Metronomy (neither of whose albums I have heard)
I think they'll make up for last year by giving it to Wild Beasts,
and it will be totally deserved, too.
Just like last year! *shakes fist*
bugger.
missed the deadline for betting. was gonna put a fiver on wells and moffat, and a quid on peej, to claw back the fiver i'd just wasted on wells and moffat.
Katy B in double nomination shocker!
Admiral Fallow
would be a deserving nominee/winner I think. Perhaps a tad unlikely though.
Elbow
blehh
Ghostpoet oh yeah
Elbow, James Blake, Anna Calvi and Katy B
No Wild Beasts shocker.
No Radiohead or Wild Beasts...
Interesting.
James Blake, Anna Calvi and Everything Everything? And Elbow's latest? Unsurprising, but underwhelming.