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Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (9:35pm Saturday)

The job Andy Reid has done in Kansas City is magnificent and in any non-Arians season would likely win him Coach of the Year, but Foxborough will prove one step too far for the Chiefs. Brady's built a career on circumventing pass rushes with nifty short passes and seam routes to undersized receivers and Gronks respectively, plus the return of Sebastian Vollmer at LT will shore up the Patriots flagging O-Line. Conversely, with Jeremy Maclin not at full strength Alex Smith has to try and channel an entire NFL offence through Travis Kelce against a defence that adjusts to new threats quicker than almost any other in the league and without the starting field position afforded by an offence that's content to just throw you the ball on every other drive. The Chiefs D can slow down Brady, but not enough for Alex Smith to keep pace.

Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals (1:15am Sunday)

While one good day against the pretty dreadful Redskins defence does not a summer make, fans of both the Packers offence and play-off games that aren't complete whitewashes will have been encouraged by last week's shoeing of the racists. With the exception of that early safety the latest incarnation of the makeshift Packers O-Line protected Rodgers well and bore precious little resemblance to the unit that surrendered 9 (nine) sacks the last time these teams played. That said both Sam Shields and Quinten Rollins are banged up against a team where you need all secondary hands on deck so more than ever the Packers success will depend on getting Clay Matthews and Julius Peppers over the top early and often to disrupt Carson Palmer's rhythm before those deep routes to Floyd, Fitz and Brown develop. I think it'll be much closer than Week 16 but the Cardinals are still the far better team.

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (6:05pm Sunday)

Probably going to be the closest game this. This years Panthers are good at all the things that the best recent Seattle teams have done well (a potent offence built of options, zone mesh concepts and a bunch of receivers you couldn't pick out of an identity parade, a marauding hard hitting front seven, an airtight secondary) whereas the Seahawks always seem to be between identity crises. The return of Marshawn Lynch should put them closer to their best but Ron Rivera and Sean McDermott are both smart and well staffed enough to put someone like Thomas Davis or Luke Kuechly on QB-spy duty to try and negate Wilson's mobility and make him throw against that secondary. With Cary Williams out of the picture the Seahawks D looks better than it has for most of the year but the Panthers offence is too diverse and creative and should be the difference in this one.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos (9:40 pm Sunday)

Remember that game in Week 9 against the Browns where a virtually immobile Ben Roethlisberger played like a turret and still won? The Steelers are going to try that again only they won't have Antonio Brown or a running game and they'll be lining up against the pass rush behemoth of Von Miller, Derek Wolfe and DeMarcus Ware rather than...erm...whoever plays on the edge for Cleveland these days (is Barkevious Mingo still about?). Peyton's play in cold weather is as deeply ingrained into The Narrative™ as any other NFL storyline but Kubiak has shown he's not scared of shuffling the deck and putting Osweiler in if he thinks it'll give them a better chance at winning. I don't think it'll come to that as Peyton will find the holes in Pittsburgh's 31st ranked pass defence that AJ McCarron couldn't. Might not be the biggest gap in the scoreline but I'd fancy this to be the most convincing win.

In AOB news everyone but Tennessee now has a head coach. From least to most potential for disaster I'd rank them as McAdoo < Pederson < Gase < Koetter < Jackson <<<<<<<<<<<<<< Kelly.